The number of cancer cases worldwide is expected to grow by nearly 77 percent between 2022 and 2050, according to a study by an Australian group. That equals an additional 15.3 million cases in 2050 on top of the 20 million that occurred in 2022. The increase in poorer countries is expected to be much larger. In addition, males had a higher incidence and greater number of deaths in 2022 than females, with this disparity projected to widen by up to 16.0% in 2050.
Global cancer deaths are also expected to rise by almost 90 percent during this period, with 8.8 million more expected in 2050 compared with 2022, in which 9.7 million people died from the disease.
The study appears in JAMA Network Open and is led by Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, PhD, of the Rural Health Research Institute, Charles Sturt University, Orange, Australia.
This is a cross-sectional data analysis for 36 cancer types from 185 countries and territories. Cancer disparities were also evident across Human Development Index (HDI), region, age, and sex in 2022, and are projected to widen by 2050.
Cancer cases and deaths are expected to rise by 77% and 90% in 2050, respectively, with a three-fold increase in low-HDI countries compared with a modest increase in very high–HDI countries (142% vs 42% for cancer cases and 146% vs 57% for cancer deaths).
Cancer cases and deaths are thus projected to nearly triple in low-HDI countries by 2050, compared to a moderate increase in very high–HDI countries (142.1% vs 41.7% for cancer cases and 146.1% vs 56.8% for cancer deaths).
By 2050, 35.3 million cancer cases worldwide are expected, a 76.6% increase from the 2022 estimate of 20 million. Similarly, 18.5 million cancer deaths are projected by 2050, an 89.7% increase from the 2022 estimate of 9.7 million. Cancer cases and deaths are projected to nearly triple in low-HDI countries by 2050, compared to a moderate increase in very high–HDI countries (142.1% vs 41.7% for cancer cases and 146.1% vs 56.8% for cancer deaths).
The authors note that, “Cancer prevention and care efforts have been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflicts, resulting in a decline in the global Human Development Index, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. These challenges and subsequent shifts in health care priorities underscore the need to continuously monitor cancer outcome disparities and statistics globally to ensure delivery of equitable and optimal cancer prevention and care in uncertain times.”
These findings suggest that enhancing health care systems for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment is vital to better address existing disparities in cancer outcomes and slow projected trends.
