Rain clouds over Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra.
(KK Choudhary/BCCL Mumbai)
Saturday, June 10: While the 2023 southwest monsoon season arrived over Kerala on June 8 — eight days later than its normal date of June 1 — its progression across India’s western coast since then has been rapid.
In fact, as per the latest update provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), conditions are becoming favourable for the further advancement of southwest monsoon into Goa and some parts of Maharashtra during the next 48 hours.
If this prediction turns out to be true, monsoon will step foot into Goa and southern coastal Maharashtra by June 11-12 — about 6-7 days later than its ‘normal’ onset date of June 5.
And if its progression across the western coast continues at the current rate, Mumbai may also experience the year’s first monsoon showers by the middle or latter half of next week, about half a week later than the metropolis’ normal onset date.
Based on weather data from 1961 to 2019, the monsoon normally arrives in Mumbai by June 11, a day after its onset in Pune around June 10. Thereafter, it reaches Ahmednagar by June 12 and Nagpur by June 15.
Southwest monsoon’s progress over India as of June 10.
(India Meteorological Department)
However, parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha may have to wait a little longer this time around, considering the monsoon rains are yet to touch the inland areas of South Peninsular India.
After May 10, the IMD announces the monsoon onset when 60% of the region’s accessible weather stations record rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days. The technical parameters for wind field and outgoing longwave radiation must also be met in conjunction with this burst of rainfall activity.
Meanwhile, as of June 10, the monsoon rains have engulfed almost the entirety of Kerala, southern Tamil Nadu, the seven sisters of Northeast and the coastal region of Karnataka.
The next 48 hours will see them cover some more parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, central Arabian Sea, southwest and west-central Bay of Bengal and the remaining parts of Northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
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