UK election: PM Rishi Sunak set to announce surprise July vote as his party seeks to defy dire polls

CNN
 — 

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is expected to call a snap general election for July 4, sources say, with his Conservative party facing an uphill struggle to extend its 14 years in power.

Sunak was required to hold a vote by January 2025, and had long resisted calls to be specific about his plans. But a fall in inflation rates, announced on Wednesday, provided the backdrop for the announcement, due to be made outside Downing Street shortly.

The decision will fire the starting gun on a six-week campaign that is almost universally expected to conclude in the demise of Sunak’s Conservative government.

The move will be welcomed by the buoyant opposition Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, which is soaring in opinion polls and has sought to present itself as a reformed and moderate group ready for power.

Sunak will hope that a shrewd campaign could result in spectacular upset for Labour and extend a period of Tory rule which began in 2010 and has overseen austerity economics, Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic and a cost of living crisis.

He is the fifth Tory leader to serve during that time, taking over from the ill-fated Liz Truss, whose disastrous term imploded just six weeks after it began and exacerbated the financial woes crippling the UK.

Sunak’s party will likely put his efforts to tackle illegal migration at the center of his campaign; a recent move to deport some asylum seekers to Rwanda finally became law last month, and the first flights could potentially leave during the campaign.

But Labour will seek to highlight the government’s struggles to ease soaring prices, the state of Britain’s over-stretched healthcare service, and the sleaze scandals that have tanked the Tories’ reputation among a large swath of British voters.

Smaller parties could upend the designs of the two dominant groups, even if it is virtually impossible for them to return a government. The new, anti-migration Reform Party and the centrist Liberal Democrats will look to challenge Sunak in some of his party’s historical strongholds, complicating his efforts to hold power.

North of the border, the pro-independence Scottish National Party will hope to hold off a Labour challenge and regain its dominance in Scotland’s politics despite a rocky period and the recent ascension of its third leader in 15 months.

The Conservatives under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a healthy majority in the last UK-wide vote, in December 2019, pledging to push through Britain’s exit from the EU – an issue that had transfixed politics in the country for more than three years.

But Johnson’s premiership collapsed after a string of scandals, paving the way for his then-finance minister Sunak to emerge as a frontrunner for the leadership.

Adding to the sense that the Conservatives are nearing the end of their time in power, dozens of Tory MPs — including former cabinet ministers and ex-Prime Minister Theresa May — announced they would not seek re-election.

Opinion polls currently point to outcomes ranging from a comfortable Labour win to a devastating electoral wipeout for the Conservatives.

But recent election and referendum campaigns have proved volatile, and Tories still publicly hopeful of success have pointed to mixed levels of enthusiasm for Labour’s offering.

The vote will take place on Thursday July 4 in all of the UK’s 650 parliamentary constituencies, and counting will occur overnight, with the two main parties seeking to cross the 326 mark needed for a majority.

A government will be formed as soon as that mark is crossed, and take charge immediately, pending the symbolic approval of King Charles III.

This is a developing story and will be updated.