Uddhav, Sharad Pawar, Shinde, Ajit or Fadnavis? Exit Poll Predicts Who Could Gain Sympathy Votes in Maharashtra

Of the 32-35 Lok Sabha seats the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win in Maharashtra, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may secure 20-22, according to estimates based on the data available as part of the News18 Poll Hub survey. Significantly, the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) group could win 11-13 seats, while the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) faction could win three-six seats, according to the data.

Amid the Lok Sabha poll campaigning, the Sena UBT leaders had often stated that the “sympathy”, following the split in the party, was with them. In case of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which, too, saw a split between the Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar groups, the Sharad Pawar group is likely to get an advantage. The data suggests that Ajit Pawar may win 0-1 seat, while Sharad Pawar’s group could win four-seven seats. In this case, too, the senior Pawar’s group had maintained that people had seen how they were wronged. The Congress, meanwhile, is likely to win six-nine seats, according to the poll survey.

The question that arises is — Who is Maharashtra sympathising with or is the Modi factor above it all?

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The 2024 Lok Sabha elections for Maharashtra’s 48 seats were fought between two alliances – the ruling Mahayuti comprising BJP, NCP (Ajit Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) faction and the MVA or Maha Aghadi, with Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Congress.

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc or the MVA may win 15-18 seats, according to the survey. The region-wise data shows that NDA is likely to win 1-3 seats in Konkan, 3-6 in Marathwada, 8-10 in Mumbai-Thane, 4-6 in North, 4-6 in Vidarbha and 4-6 in the west. It further shows that INDIA may win 0-2 seats in Konkan, 2-5 in Marathwada, 0-2 in Mumbai-Thane, 0-2 in North, 4-6 in Vidarbha and 4-6 in the west.

Exit poll predictions are not foolproof given a large number of variable factors. The pollsters, however, had succeeded in gauging the trends in 2019 and 2014. The findings, if they come true, will have a major impact on the political dynamics in Maharashtra, which is set for the assembly elections later this year. The results will be announced on June 4.

THE SYMPATHY FACTOR

In Mahayuti, the BJP contested 28 seats, Shinde 14 and Ajit Pawar-led NCP got five seats. The MVA gave 21 seats to Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress 17 and 10 to NCP (SP). With 48 seats, Maharashtra ranks second behind Uttar Pradesh in sending MPs to the Lok Sabha. The state voted over three phases.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an exclusive interview with Network18, had said the sympathy of Maharashtra is with the BJP and not Sharad Pawar or Uddhav Thackeray post the split of their parties, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena, respectively.

PM Modi had said: “The storms that erupted within the Shiv Sena or the NCP clearly show what happens when you give importance to only your family members over other leaders it leads to difficulties. The trouble in Sharad Pawar’s house is their family dispute. Should the daughter get the reins or the nephew? Similar is the tussle in Shiv Sena like the Congress – should a deserving leader be promoted or the son?”

ALSO READ | PM Narendra Modi: Maharashtra’s Sympathy With BJP; Sena, NCP Split Over Family Disputes | Exclusive Interview

“These are their disputes. I believe our country hates such dynasty politics. If someone tries to use the word ‘sympathy’ to evoke sympathy among people, I say even that attempt will fail. People hate such things. They cannot accept such things. These are your family disputes, resolve them within your home. Why are you ruining the state of Maharashtra over this,” asked Modi.

During his exclusive interview with News18, Piyush Goyal, Union Minister and BJP’s Mumbai North candidate had said that Maharashtra voters’ sympathy will be with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Devendra Fadnavis as Uddhav Thackeray betrayed them.

THE MAHA FIGHT

Among the key candidates are Piyush Goyal (BJP, Mumbai North), Arvind Sawant (Shiv Sena UBT, Mumbai South), Varsha Gaikwad (Congress, Mumbai North Central), Kapil Patil (BJP, Bhiwandi), Rajan Vichare (Shiv Sena UBT, Thane), Shrikant Shinde (Shiv Sena, Kalyan), Raosaheb Danve (BJP, Jalna), Pankaja Munde (BJP, Beed), Sujay Vikhe-Patil (BJP, Ahmednagar), Nitin Gadkari (BJP, Nagpur), Supriya Sule (NCP SP, Baramati), Udayanraje Bhosale (BJP, Satara), Navneet Kaur Rana (BJP, Amravati) and Sudhir Mungantiwar (BJP, Chandrapur).

The BJP-led alliance had won 42 seats in 2014 and 41 in 2019. The BJP had won 23 of the 25 seats it had contested in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while its then alliance partner — undivided Shiv Sena — won 18 of the 23 seats. The undivided NCP, as part of the opposition alliance, had contested 19 seats and managed to win four.

The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. In each Lok Sabha constituency, 180 interviews were conducted using a structured questionnaire, which was translated into 11 regional languages. For phases one to six, the interviews were conducted the ‘day after’, as it is known to yield more reliable responses, and the traditional exit poll – asking people coming out of the polling booth – was carried out for Phase 7.

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A total sample size of 93,240 across 21 states was planned, but over 95,000 was achieved. In each Lok Sabha constituency, three Vidhan Sabha constituencies were covered, with 10 polling booths in each selected through random sampling. Around each polling station, trained investigators conducted 15 door-to-door interviews – one eligible respondent with inked finger per household. In case of the exit poll, near each polling station, 15 interviews were conducted of people coming out after casting their votes, with every fifth person stopped for interview.

On-spot checks by senior field manager and executives, geo-tagging of interviews and telephonic back-checks for 20% of the sample in each state were among the many steps taken to maintain quality.