Recent developments suggest a shift in the U.S. presidential race.
According to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, Donald Trump’s chance of winning the election on July 16, 2024, was 72%. As of now, it has dropped to 55%, while Kamala Harris’s chances have risen to 43%.
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Kamala Harris’s entry into the presidential race has invigorated the Democratic Party and shifted the dynamics. Initially seen as a weaker opponent, Kamala Harris has made the contest more competitive, leaving Trump’s campaign scrambling for effective strategies and responses.
Trump’s recent behavior, including an awkward attempt to criticize Harris’s racial identity at a press conference with the National Association of Black Journalists, highlighted his campaign’s struggle. His comments were met with backlash, revealing a candidate who appears to be losing his footing.
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Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, initially seen as a boost to the campaign due to his fundraising and energy, has become a liability.
J.D. Vance’s involvement in Project 2025, a controversial right-wing manifesto, has caused Trump to distance himself from it, further complicating his campaign.
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The campaign’s struggles have replaced the earlier sense of triumph Trump exhibited following an assassination attempt.
Now, international governments, including those in India, are considering the implications of a potential Harris presidency.
For India, which has prioritized relations with the U.S. over the past five years, a Kamala Harris presidency may not lead to major disruptions.
Harris has largely followed the Biden administration’s foreign policy and has represented the U.S. in various international engagements.
Her focus during the Biden administration included addressing immigration issues from Central America and expressing concern about the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
While Harris has been silent on her previous criticisms of the Modi government and India’s democracy, her Indian heritage is unlikely to influence U.S. policy favorably toward India.
As the campaign unfolds, the evolving political landscape will determine whether Kamala Harris’s rise will continue or if Donald Trump can regain his footing.
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