Toronto: After facing yet another humiliating defeat in a stronghold in a Federal by-election, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government could face a challenging motion of no confidence as early as next week.
The loss came in the riding (as constituencies are called in Canada) of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec as the results of the by-election on Monday were announced. The verdict went in favour of Louis-Philippe Sauvé of the Bloc Québécois who bested Liberal Party candidate Laura Palestini.
The by-election was caused by the resignation of former Cabinet Minister David Lametti earlier this year. He had won the 2021 Federal election by a margin of nearly 20 per cent.
This loss came after the ruling party lost another ‘safe seat’, Toronto-St Paul’s, in June, indicative of the sinking fortunes of Trudeau.
His next challenge will be to survive the next week, when the opposition Conservative Party is expected to bring forth a no-confidence motion. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre posted on X, “Taxes up. Costs up. Crime’s up. Time’s up.”
It’s little surprise that Poilievre wants to precipitate an early election. According to a poll released by the agency Abacus Data on Monday, if an election were held at this time, 43 per cent of committed voters would vote Conservative and just 22 per cent for the for the Liberals. The agency said, “The gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has grown by 4 points since our last survey in August.”
According to the outlet National Post, based on modelling done by Ottawa-based Raymond Liu, if that data were to be translated to seats in the House of Commons, the ruling party would be reduced to the fourth position, behind the Conservatives with 230, the Bloc Québécois with 41 seats, the New Democratic Party at 38 and the Liberals holding only 32 seats.
Trudeau has not indicated he will resign and, in fact, appeared to place the onus on voters, as he reacted on Tuesday, “We need people to be more engaged, we need people to understand what’s at stake in this upcoming election.”
The next election is scheduled for October next year but a loss of confidence in the House could force early polls. The House currently has 336 members, with the Liberals having a minority strength of 154. It will require either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to bail the ruling party out.
Earlier this month, the NDP pulled out of the Supply and Confidence Agreement, signed in March 2022, which had given the Government a working majority. That no longer exists putting Trudeau’s political future in peril.
