The public mood is tough to read this time and while the BJP will get majority, one can expect the unexpected: This was what a group of experts at NDTV concluded this evening as the massive celebration of democracy in the country draws to a close. There will be tough fights, some in the BJP bastions of the north but the ruling party will gain from non-BJP states, including Telangana, Odisha and Bengal, the experts said. As for the 370-seat target, it could represent an ideal, said one of the experts at NDTV Battleground, anchored by Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia.
The 2024 election has bucked the trend of the last 10 years, because of an absence of any wave or public anger, the experts agreed. What has hit the country instead is a sense of discontent, which the Opposition has failed to capitalise on.
Senior journalist and political expert Neerja Chowdhury said this election has been “complex” and “difficult to decode”.
“At some level, we are not seeing that Modi wave. On a different level, there are some fence-sitters. Modi Wave cannot control the Opposition, who have local issues. The Opposition is giving a fight but that doesn’t equal victory,” she added.
Pointing out that a wave is seen “after an election”, political strategist Amitabh Tiwari said, “Voting is an emotional decision. There’s discontent. Last time, the BJP got 40 per cent votes… But converting discontent to anger is important (for the Opposition). It’s not easy to understand the psyche of the voter”.
Public mood after six phases
This election had started with some issues but deviated from them soon enough. The BJP had started the polls with a focus on national issues, but ended up responding to the Opposition agenda including change in constitution, said Sanjay Kumar, psephologist from CSDS.
But barring the noise on social media, there is also the silent majority that makes up is mind about which way to go even before the election begins. Asked whether the Opposition has got got sidetracked and misled by the illusion created by social media, Mr Tiwari agreed.
“One has to think what is the issue at the heart of every election,” he said. “People vote for the bright future of themselves and their children… There are two key sections missing from the social media chatter — women and the beneficiaries of welfare projects. These are the two sections who have decided which way many of the elections went,” he added.
The BJP is hoping to win 370 seats in the ongoing election, which has reached the last stretch. The party has given its NDA allies a target of 30-plus seats, which will take the score of the ruling alliance to 400-plus.
The last phase of election will be held on June 1, the counting of votes will take place on June 4.
