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Martin Odegaard has scored one goal this season, and it was about as inconsequential as they come: a penalty slotted away during the 5-2 thrashing of West Ham United in November. He has recorded a handful of assists across all competitions, but the goals-scored column is otherwise empty.
It is a drastic decline. Last season Odegaard scored eight times; he scored 15 in the campaign before that, topping Arsenal’s end-of-season charts alongside Gabriel Martinelli. At a time when there is scrutiny on Arsenal’s lack of a ruthless striker, underlined by the match-winning performance of Newcastle’s Alexander Isak at the Emirates this week, as well as a need for fresh impetus on the wing, Odegaard’s goals are needed now more than ever.
The numbers of seasons past, Arteta said on Friday, are just not sustainable. “When you look at probability and samples, sustaining an attacking midfielder scoring 15 goals like he did two years ago, it doesn’t happen because it hasn’t happened in 50 years.” Frank Lampard offers a counter to that point, having surpassed 15 goals in nine out of 10 fruitful seasons in the middle of his Chelsea career. But it is true that Odegaard’s haul of 15 came against an expected goals tally of 9.9, and the laws of xG dictate that he would regress.
“He’s trying, he’s trying very hard,” Arteta added. “He had some big chances, missed some opportunities. We just help him and make sure he is comfortable enough to take the shot when he needs to do that, because he’s so good at it.”
Yet the problem runs deeper than bad luck or a lack of confidence in front of goal. Odegaard has taken only 1.59 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, well down from 2.68 and 2.18 in the previous two campaigns and his lowest firing rate since 2020-21. It is the same across the board: his xG per 90 minutes has fallen to its lowest figure for four seasons, while his goal involvement per 90 of 0.39 is down from last season’s 0.50 and 0.52 the previous campaign.
Put succinctly, Arsenal’s captain isn’t receiving the ball in threatening positions nearly as often, he isn’t taking as many shots at goal and when he does get the opportunity, he hasn’t been finding the net.
There are some mitigating factors at play here. The ankle sprain Odegaard suffered while playing for Norway in September wiped out two months of his season. He was excellent on his immediate return, creating goals against Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, but has since been a shadow of the brilliant player who conducted Arsenal’s attacking play with so much swagger last season.
Having only recently recovered from illness, Odegaard looked lost at times during the 2-0 Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg defeat by Newcastle, at one point stumbling in space and losing possession as if the ball was an unfamiliar shape, like a dad who hadn’t played 5-aside for six months. He appeared reluctant to drive into the penalty box and make runs into attacking spaces.
“He’s come back from an injury, and the first maybe week or two you have that extra energy,” explained Arteta. “Then you play every three days…”
Of course something similar could be said about most of Arsenal’s attackers right now. Odegaard is a player who thrives on connections, the floating link between different parts of the team, and that chemistry has fizzled out all over the pitch. Bukayo Saka’s injury has been disruptive too, someone who instinctively runs into the path of an imagined Odegaard pass which only they can see coming.
Asked if Odegaard is missing his sidekick, Arteta said: “It can be an element of that, obviously. There are a lot of circumstances but it is inevitable to think when you have such a chemistry with that player, and you’re not next to each other, that you’re going to notice something is different.”
Arsenal fans have urged new signings, particularly with Napoli’s maverick talent Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the market. But new recruits are going to be hard to find, especially in January. “We have certain limitations,” Arteta said. “We have a lot of gaps and a lot of things to cover to become the team that we want. And then the availability of [new signings], even if you want them, sometimes it’s not possible.”
Meanwhile the relentless churn of fixtures continues unabated. Injuries and suspensions will continue to bite. Balls will continue to fly unpredictably over the crossbar. Right now, with four competitions in full swing, Arteta is leaning heavily on leaders such as Odegaard.
That point will likely be underlined by the manager’s selection this weekend, when Arsenal take on Manchester United in the FA Cup third round. This should be a chance to rotate the team and freshen up his starting line-up, but a bruised and battered squad offers limited options. Gabriel Jesus may come into the front line, while Raheem Sterling could make a rare appearance, but Odegaard is almost certain to start out of sheer necessity, even if he might benefit from a rare rest.
Even without goals, the captain still contributes with leadership, with the way he sets the tempo, as well as set-piece delivery in the absence of Saka. He leads the press intelligently, conducting his teammates to Arteta’s beat. Arteta values those traits and he still disputes the notion that Arsenal are short of goals, pointing to their phenomenal tally in 2024: 114 in total, more than in any other calendar year this century. “I don’t think [goals] are a problem,” he said bluntly.
Yet in 13 of 30 games this season, Arsenal have scored either one or none. The defensive story is a happier one, roughly matching Liverpool for expected goals conceded. But Arteta’s side are a world behind for expected goal scored, with only 33.9 to Liverpool’s 44.1, ranked seventh in the Premier League below Bournemouth, Tottenham and Newcastle. And for all their obvious ails among the front three, perhaps Odegaard’s declining output is the ultimate symbol of Arsenal’s struggles.
