T20 World Cup 2024 Scenarios – How can Pakistan, England, SL, NZ still qualify?

The first leg of league games of the T20 World Cup 2024 have thrown up some upsets and a case of split points due to rain, which has left one of the favourites in each group with plenty to do to qualify for the Super Eights. Here is a look at the possibilities in each group.

What are the result margins required for Pakistan to qualify?

Pakistan’s convincing win against Canada, with 15 balls to spare, has certainly pushed up their chances of qualifying, though they are still at the mercy of other results. Their net run rate has now improved to 0.191, which means they are almost certain of qualifying if they beat Ireland, and if USA lose their two remaining matches. That’s because the result margins required are tiny: even if USA lose their two remaining matches by a combined margin of ten runs (with scores of 140 by the team batting first), a win by any margin will be enough for Pakistan as long as they score at least 112 batting first.

But the bigger worry for Pakistan will be the weather, with rain forecast through the week in Lauderhill, where they play Ireland. If USA get a single point or if Pakistan drop a point due to a washout, Pakistan will be out of the World Cup.

What do England need to do to qualify?

Like in group A, there is one team sitting comfortably in group B, Australia, while England are in a position similar to Pakistan’s: they need to win their last two, and hope that Scotland lose their last game, against Australia on June 15. The task is a bit tougher for England, though, as they have far more catching up to do on NRR: Scotland are on 2.164, thanks largely to their win with 41 balls to spare against Oman, while England are on -1.8.

If Scotland lose to Australia by 20 runs (say, chasing 161), England will have to win their last two games, against Oman and Namibia, by a combined margin of at least 94 runs to go ahead of Scotland on run rate. Equally importantly, England will be praying for clear weather which will give them the opportunity to stack up the points and the victory margins because another washout will knock them out.

Do Sri Lanka still have a realistic chance?

Bangladesh’s defeat to South Africa is good news for Sri Lanka, but for it to benefit them, Sri Lanka will have to win their two remaining matches – against Nepal and Netherlands – and hope that Bangladesh lose at least one of their two remaining matches, also against the same teams.

If Sri Lanka score 160 in each of their last two games and win by 20 runs, their NRR will lift to 0.074, which is only marginally below Bangladesh’s current 0.075. If Bangladesh win one and lose one of their two remaining matches by similar margins, their rate will remain close to where it currently is. However, if their win margin is bigger than the defeat, then Sri Lanka’s task will get tougher.

This group also has giantkillers Netherlands, who are currently on two points from two games with an NRR of 0.024, with matches to come against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. One more win could put them in the mix as well.

How badly have New Zealand’s chances been dented by their defeat to Afghanistan

Not only did New Zealand lose, but they also did so by a whopping margin of 84 runs, which means their NRR is languishing at -4.2. Afghanistan, meanwhile, have won their two matches by a combined margin of 209 runs, which has lifted their run rate to 5.225. Both West Indies and Afghanistan have beaten Uganda by over 120 runs.

New Zealand will have to do the same, but before that, they will have to beat West Indies on Wednesday in what is a virtual knockout game for them. If they lose, then West Indies will qualify with six points, and Afghanistan will be strong favourites to join them with a win over PNG the next day. If that happens, then New Zealand’s last two games, against Uganda and PNG on Saturday and Monday, will not matter.

*This story was updated at 18.30 GMT on June 11 after Pakistan beat Canada