Recent polling has introduced some unexpected developments in the 2024 U.S. presidential race, particularly in key swing states. According to the latest Quinnipiac University survey, Kamala Harris is showing significant leads over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, a state with 19 electoral votes that favored the Democrats in the 2020 election, Harris is now leading Trump 51% to 45%.
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This represents a substantial increase from last month when her lead was only three points.
In Michigan, which has 15 electoral votes, Kamala Harris is ahead 50% to 45%. Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes, shows a tight race with Harris at 48%, Trump at 47%, and Jill Stein at 1%.
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While these figures might suggest a strong position for Kamala Harris, experts advise caution.
Aggregated data from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ indicates that the races in Pennsylvania and Michigan are closer than the Quinnipiac poll suggests, with Kamala Harris leading by less than a percentage point in both states and by 2.9 percentage points in Wisconsin.
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Political analysts, including Nate Silver and Republican pollster Frank Luntz, note that Quinnipiac’s polls have historically leaned Democratic, which might inflate Harris’s lead.
On a national scale, a Fox News survey indicates Kamala Harris has a slight edge over Trump, showing a shift of 3 percentage points since mid-August.
Kamala Harris is currently ahead by 2 points at 50% to 48%, compared to Trump’s previous 1-point lead over Biden in July.
This evolving data highlights the fluid nature of the 2024 election landscape.
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