‘Queen’ Kangana To Rule Over Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi Lok Sabha Seat? What News18 Exit Poll Predicts

Bharatiya Janata Party’s candidate and actor Kangana Ranaut is likely to win against Congress’s royal scion Vikramaditya Singh in Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi, according to News18 Mega Exit Poll. Ranaut has had intense campaign support from the top ranks of the party, including PM Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The BJP is also predicted to bag the remaining three Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh, according to the poll.

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Traditionally, the Congress has dominated the seat of Mandi, with the late Virbhadra Singh representing it thrice, and Pratibha Singh winning three times including two bypolls. Their son Vikramaditya is in the fray. The BJP’s Maheshwar Singh first bagged the seat in 1989, and then served between 1998 and 2004, followed by Ram Swaroop Sharma who led from 2014 until his demise in 2021.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, the BJP had scored a massive vote share of 69.3% against the Congress’s 29.1%, winning all four seats — Kangra, Mandi, Shimla and Hamirpur. The BJP had won by more than three lakh votes in all of these seats, riding on the Modi wave.

This time around, the fight was tough, with the Congress in power in Himachal Pradesh, having won the assembly polls only a few months ago. The Congress has been highlighting its management of the monsoon disaster. It announced a Rs 45,000-crore special package from state funds in a bid to showcase the ability to handle the major crisis. A significant issue in the assembly polls was the Old Pension Scheme (OPS), which the Congress promised to deliver on and aimed to leverage in the LS polls.

However, the party faced internal divisions which is evident from the rebellion by six MLAs. The infighting at one point created a serious crisis within the party’s local ranks, hitting the morale of local Congress workers in some pockets. The BJP has, throughout the campaign, attempted to exploit this internal divide in the Congress.

Compared to the Congress, the BJP leaders in Himachal Pradesh managed to present a united front. This unity was in sharp contrast with the internal strife within the Congress, potentially giving the BJP an organisational advantage. The BJP was in a dominant position, with 12 out of the 17 assembly seats in Mandi in its kitty. The inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and welfare schemes had a major impact on voters, particularly those who are inclined towards the BJP’s Hindutva agenda.

The News18 Poll Hub survey covered all 518 seats in 21 major states, which account for 95% of Lok Sabha constituencies in the country. Exit poll predictions are not foolproof given a large number of variable factors. The pollsters, however, had succeeded in gauging the trends in 2019 and 2014.