On December 29, 2023, an alarming incident occurred when a Russian missile entered Polish airspace amid a large-scale missile attack on Ukraine by the Russian Federation. Currently, the potential type of the missile is being speculated as a Kh-101 or a Kh-22. Alarmingly, the Polish air defense was unable to intercept and destroy it.
As reported by prominent local media, Poland’s military and political heads are working on the best response strategy. Meanwhile, the citizens of Poland, despite vast investments in bolstering national defense, are left puzzled about their anti-aircraft systems’ failure to prevent the missile threat from Russia.
An insightful piece from the Polish portal, Defence24, retrospectively analyzes the events and tries to bring clarity to the situation. Their internal conclusions raise pertinent points that merit consideration.
Defence24’s most striking disclosure is the reality that no air defense apparatus worldwide is designed to guard 100% of a country’s territorial expanse. Furthermore, for countries like Poland, anti-aircraft missile systems are often deployed to protect strategic military sites and critical infrastructure.
A reactionary proposal that has gained steam is the full-scale deployment of all available air defense resources along the Ukrainian border to deter Russian missile incursions. However, Defence24 critically argues that Poland lacks adequate air defense systems to form an effective ‘curtain’ against Russian missiles along the border.
Truth be told, Poland has indeed commissioned a substantial order for 46 Polish-British Narew air defense systems worth up to $8 billion. Yet, they currently operate only two of these systems. The remaining systems are slated for delivery between 2027 and 2035.
Defence24 raises another critical issue – the fundamental requirement to detect an aerial target before neutralizing it. Sadly, Polish radar surveillance capabilities seem to be lacking. The plan to roll out the first division with radar surveillance balloons is set for 2023, and two Saab 340 AEW-type AWACS aircraft were ordered just last summer.
Moreover, for continuous patrolling with F-16 fighters, Poland needs its own fleet of ‘air tankers’, a category of aircraft currently missing from the Polish Air Force. These points collectively demonstrate that Poland’s air defense capabilities have not significantly advanced over the past year, a fact that is quite revealing.
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