Pakistan finance minister Ishaq Dar presented key data about his country’s economy on Thursday and the numbers underline the challenge facing prime minister Shehbaz Sharif‘s government. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2022/23, the country’s real GDP grew by just 0.29%; the agriculture sector grew by 1.55% while industries declined by 2.94%. The services sector – which contributes nearly 60% to the Pak GDP – grew by only 0.86%.
However, as he presented the numbers Dar spoke less about the dismal performance of various sectors of the Pakistani economy and more on the global environment and economic fundamentals PM Sharif inherited when he replaced ex-PM Imran Khan in April last year.
READ | Number theory: Why Pakistan’s current account surplus may spell bad news for the economy
Dar complained of a ‘[political] project (that was) conceived in 2010, flourished in 2018, and reached its culmination in 2022’, but, in the process ‘put the country in reverse gear’. He also said the Pak economy – which some believed primed for G-20 membership in a few years – had lost its standing due to Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehree-e-Insaaf. “We now have to resume development from where it was left off in 2017… with an inclusive and resilient growth trajectory that is sustainable, builds investor confidence and ends market nervousness.”
Pakistan Economic Survey 2022/23 highlights
Real GDP growth was just 0.29 per cent compared to the International Monetary Fund’s April prediction of 0.5 per cent. However, GDP at current market prices was ₹84,657.9 billion in FY23 – a growth of 27.1 per cent from last year.
Fiscal deficit fell to 4.6 per cent of GDP during July-April FY23 compared to 4.9 per cent last year. Headline inflation averaged 29.2 per cent between July-May FY23 against 11.3 per cent in the same period last year.
Agriculture sector grew at estimated 1.55 per cent in FY23, with wheat, sugarcane, maize and livestock the primary drivers.
Cotton and rice production declined by 41 per cent and 21. 5 per cent, with last year’s flash floods having a large negative impact.
Industrial sector posted a negative growth of 2.94 per cent; a major reason is believed to be poor performance by manufacturing, which has a 65 per cent share in this sector.
READ | Pakistan economic crisis drives massive 84% dip in vehicle sales
Large-scale manufacturing declined by 8.11 per cent compared to growth of 10.6 per cent last year. Mining and quarrying fell by 4.4 per cent against drop of 7 per cent last year.
Coal production increased by 17.6 per cent but natural gas and crude oil output fell by 9.3 per cent and 10.2 per cent. The Pak government believes ‘once global shocks of the war in Ukraine’ ends ‘the road to global growth and trade prospects (will) be smoother’.
Services sector – which contributes nearly 60 per cent of Pakistan’s GDP – grew by an almost negligible 0.86 per cent.
Per capita income declined from USD 1,765 last year to USD 1,568 on account of currency depreciation, lower GDP growth and increasing population.
Total revenues grew 18.1 per cent to ₹6,938.2 billion, or 8.2 per cent of GDP, in July-March FY23. Tax revenues grew by 16.5 per cent and non-tax revenues by 25.5 per cent.
Total expenditures grew by 18.7% to ₹10 trillion in July-Mar FY23
Total public debt stood at ₹59.25 trillion by end-March 2023.
