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We’re just weeks away now from do-or-die playoff action ahead of the final two weeks of the NFL regular season.
The playoff picture in the AFC conference looks near-certain, with Patrick Mahomes leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the No 1 seed ahead of the Buffalo Bills, and only a handful of teams able to force their way into the wild card round in the remaining weeks.
Yet the situation for those final playoff spots are much tighter in the NFC, with two teams with winning records – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks – currently narrowly outside the top-seven spots.
But plenty can change before Sunday 5 January, when the final regular season matches take place.
The Independent now takes a look at the NFL playoff picture – and who can stay in the race for the Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on 9 February.
AFC
The six teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) – No 1 seed guaranteed, have won AFC West
- Buffalo Bills (12-3) – have won AFC East
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
- Houston Texans (9-7) – have won AFC South
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up the No 1 seed in the AFC, meaning they receive a bye to the divisional round – and will play that match at home.
Andy Reid’s side, the defending champions as they go for three NFL titles in a row, will also play the AFC Championship match at home should they reach that stage.
The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans have already won their divisons, guaranteeing a wild card round match at home, and the Bills look set to seal the No 2 seed, which would mean home games all the way to the Super Bowl unless the AFC Championship clash is against Kansas City.
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are battling it out for the AFC North title, although the runner-up will still make the play-offs as a wild card, while the Los Angeles Chargers sealed a wild card spot by thrashing the New England Patriots on Saturday of week 17.
Who is in the box seat?
- Denver Broncos (9-7) – chances of playoffs: 62%
The Broncos are one win away from a play-off spot but that has been true for each of the last two weeks when they lost to the Chargers and then the Cincinnati Bengals. They host the Chiefs on the final weekend and defeat would put them in real danger of missing a play-off spot but it is likely to be a much-changed Kansas City team, given they have already locked up the No 1 seed in the AFC.
Who is still in contention?
- Indianapolis Colts (7-8) – chances of playoffs: 15%
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) – chances of playoffs: 14%
- Miami Dolphins (7-8) – chances of playoffs: 8%
Each of these three teams must win their remaining games to reach 9-8 and then hope the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, dropping Denver to 9-8, to give themselves a chance of sneaking into the play-offs. If that happens, it comes down to tiebreakers.
This is where it gets complicated. Let’s presume the Broncos lose to the Chiefs:
- The Bengals would need both the Colts and Dolphins to lose one of their final two games (while winning themselves) to take the final wild card spot.
- The Dolphins would just need the Colts to lose one of their final two games (while winning themselves) to take the final wild card spot as they have the tiebreaker over the Bengals and Broncos
- The Colts would need at least one of the Bengals or Dolphins to win all their remaining games (while also winning themselves) to take the final wild card spot. That’s beacuse Indianapolis would lose a straight head-to-head tiebreaker with the Broncos but would win a three or four-way tiebreaker with the Broncos and one/both of Cincinnati and Miami.
Who is definitely out?
- New York Jets (4-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
- Tennessee Titans (3-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
- New England Patriots (3-13)
NFC
The four teams who have definitely qualified for the playoffs are:
- Detroit Lions (13-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
- Green Bay Packers (11-4)
No team in the NFC has mathematically won their division yet but these four teams (three of whom – the Lions, Vikings and Packers – are in the NFC North) are all guaranteed a play-off spot. It’s a shootout between the Lions and Vikings for the NFC North title, with the Packers guaranteed a wild card spot.
The Eagles will win the NFC East if they win either or their final two games, or the Washington Commanders lose either of their final two.
Who is in the box seat?
- Washington Commanders (10-5) – chances of playoffs: 94%
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6) – chances of playoffs: 98%
- Atlanta Falcons (8-7) – chances of playoffs: 54%
The Commanders can seal a play-off spot this week if they beat the Falcons or the Buccaneers lose to the Carolina Panthers, while they need to win and hope the Philadelphia Eagles lose to the Dallas Cowboys to keep their hopes of nicking the NFC East title alive.
The Rams are also almost there after beating the Arizona Cardinals at SoFi Stadium on Saturday night to stay ahead of the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. LA will win the division if certain results go their way on Sunday, or they can wrap it up by beating the Seahawks next Sunday.
Between the Falcons and the Buccaneers in the NFC South, it is neck-and-neck. Atlanta travel to Washington on Sunday night in a massive match with huge consequences, before hosting the Panthers on the final weekend.
The Seahawks have done their job but need favours from a number of teams on Sunday to keep their hopes of winning the NFC West alive by the time they travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams in week 18. Neither the Seahawks or Rams can earn a wild card spot if they don’t win the NFC West
Who is still in contention?
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) – chances of playoffs: 52%
- Seattle Seahawks (9-7) – chances of playoffs: 2%
The Buccaneers are basically in a straight shootout with the Falcons for the NFC South title and, barring a disastrous Commanders collapse, the runner-up won’t make the play-offs.
The Seahawks have basically reached get on your knees and pray time, hoping for a number of results to go their way this weekend to keep their hopes of overhauling the Rams for the NFC West title alive heading into the final weekend of regular-season action.
Who is definitely out?
- Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
- New Orleans Saints (5-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-11)
- Carolina Panthers (4-11)
- New York Giants (2-13)
When do the playoffs start?
The wildcard round – featuring six matches – starts on Saturday 11 January.
The divisional rounds are on the weekend starting on 18 January, with the conference championships a week later.
Super Bowl LIX is on Sunday 9 February.
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