A team of scientists supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has developed a promising blood test that could predict the risk of developing severe respiratory diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
The test analyzes 32 proteins in the blood to determine an individual’s likelihood of needing medical care or even dying from severe respiratory illnesses. The findings, based on lung health data from a 30-year study, were published in the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.
While the test is not yet ready for clinical use, it represents a significant step toward earlier detection of respiratory diseases, according to James P. Kiley, PhD, director of the Division of Lung Diseases at the NIH’s National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI). “It consolidates insights from decades of breathing tests and medical evaluations into a single tool that has the potential to identify patients at risk for severe disease and complications,” Kiley explained.
The test is based on data collected from 2,470 adults who participated in a 30-year cardiovascular health study. At the 25-year mark, researchers screened thousands of proteins in blood samples and identified 32 proteins that most accurately predicted a participant’s lung function trajectory. Using this information, they created a risk score to predict whether individuals would need medical treatment for or die from a severe respiratory condition.
The results were striking: adults with higher risk scores had an 84% increased chance of developing COPD, a 17% higher chance of requiring hospital care for respiratory illness, and at least an 81% increased risk of dying from respiratory diseases such as COPD or pneumonia. Additionally, these individuals were more likely to experience respiratory exacerbations, such as severe coughing or shortness of breath, that required treatment.
“Loss of lung function year over year is associated with poor respiratory health outcomes, but we don’t have an easy way to identify if a patient is on a steep trajectory of decline,” said Ravi Kalhan, MD, a coauthor of the study and professor of pulmonary medicine at Northwestern University. “If we had a simple blood test that captured lung function decline at a single time point, it would enable earlier interventions that could improve long-term lung health.”
The test’s predictive ability was further validated by applying the risk score to over 40,000 adults from two prior observational studies. Even after accounting for factors such as sex, race, smoking history, and body weight, the test successfully identified individuals most likely to develop severe respiratory conditions.
“This test is like measuring cholesterol to gauge a patient’s heart attack risk, but for respiratory diseases like COPD,” said Gabrielle Y. Liu, MD, pulmonologist and coauthor of the study from the University of California, Davis Medical Center.
While the test still requires further clinical trials before it can be approved as a screening tool, it holds the potential to revolutionize how doctors predict and prevent severe respiratory diseases. COPD and other respiratory conditions are leading causes of death globally, with smoking, air pollution, and workplace exposure to chemicals being primary risk factors.
