Story so far: The stage for Maharashtra elections is set with the six-way fight between the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi on November 20. In an unprecedented move, the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will face their own party factions in the poll fray. The fragmentation of these regional political forces with respect to seats and vote share is an inevitable outcome of these polls. However, what would their fate be post-polls is a debate raging among political analysts in the State.
Dr. Deepak Pawar on the fate of regional parties in Maharashtra post-polls
2024 Lok Sabha: War of factions
The first battle between the two Shiv Sena factions and the two NCPs was fought in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Shiv Sena faceoff
Armed with the iconic ‘bow and arrow’ symbol and the party name ‘Shiv Sena’, Eknath Shinde’s faction won seven of the 15 seats it contested and polled 12.95% of the votes. In all of its winning seats – Buldhana, Aurangabad, Kalyan, Thane, Mumbai North-West, Maval and Hatkanangale, it was in a direct fight with its rival faction, Sena (UBT), led by Uddhav Thackeray.
In comparison, Sena (UBT) won nine seats of the 22 seats it contested – scoring a lower strike rate of 40.91% compared to Sena’s 46.67%. Of the nine seats it won, six were against Shiv Sena – Mumbai South Central, Mumbai South, Yavatmal-Washim, Shirdi, Nashik and Hingoli. Sena (UBT) polled 16.72% of the total votes. As a result, the two Senas combinedly won 16 seats and polled 29.67% of the votes. In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena won 18 seats and polled 23.5% of the votes.
Vote share of parties in Maharashtra in Lok Sabha 2019
These figures show that while Shinde’s Sena faction has outperformed the Thackeray faction in a direct face-off, and shown a better strike-rate, the voteshare of the two Senas has improved. The undivided Sena’s chief – Uddhav Thackeray – who campaigned for the Congress, has found support among minorities and anti-BJP voters apart from Thackeray family loyalists, which has increased his faction’s voteshare.
“In the past two years, Sena (UBT) has moved from the so-called fanatic Hindutva of Balasaheb Tahckeray to a more non-Brahminical Hindutva of Prabodhankar Thackeray (Bal Thackeray’s father). Sena (UBT) is trying to expand its voterbase. Because there is better understanding between the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) parties, if Uddhav Thackeray, his son and cadre put across their agenda better, rather than just lamenting that they (Shinde and his MLAs) took away his party, then Sena (UBT) electoral support base will have new clientele,” opines Dr. Deepak Pawar, Head of the Civics and Politics department at Mumbai University.
Talking about Mr. Thackeray’s new-found supporters, he says, “His Hindutvawadi supporters might have diminished, but because of his COVID-19 interactions and his interaction with the INDIA bloc, he is more popular among minorities than the NCP-Congress guys.” Dr. Pawar also says that in spite of enormous funds pumped in by Mr. Shinde’s electoral campaign, without him proving what he has to offer to the people of Maharashtra, it would be difficult for his party to gain traction.
Currently, Shiv Sena is contesting on 83 seats in the upcoming State polls while Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting on 93 seats. The two factions are fighting head-on in 49 seats, of which 19 are in and around Mumbai – Shiv Sena’s core bastion.
NCP tussle
Allowed to use the ‘clock’ symbol and the party’s name – Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Ajit Pawar’s faction won only one of the four seats it contested and polled 3.6% of the votes. Mr. Pawar’s only victory was in Raigad, while he managed to lose both sugar-belt seats Baramati and Shirur to the other NCP faction. Mr. Pawar’s wife lost to his cousin Supriya Sule in Baramati – a poll fight Ajit Pawar has since then regretted picking.
In comparison, the NCP founder Sharad Pawar’s faction – NCP(SP) – won eight of the ten seats it contested, polling 10.27% of the votes. In total, the two factions have won nine seats and 13.87%. In 2019, the undivided NCP won four seats and a 15.68% voteshare.
Lok Sabha results in 2019
These figures show that the senior Pawar won the battle of factions, clocking a 80% strike rate compared to NCP’s 25%. Moreover, since the split, it is his faction that has mainly benefitted from the overall increase in NCP seats and votes. The 83-year-old veteran politican, who spearheads the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s strategy and negotiations, and balances Sena and Congress’ opposing ideologies, has rejuvenated his party, fielding more new faces – a move which has resonated with voters.
“Ajit Pawar’s party has a very uncertain political future. In rural Maharashtra, people did not like the way Ajit Pawar left Sharad Pawar, they did not like the split up of the party and family. Secondly, Ajit Pawar’s political influence has been confined to Baramati and I say this because he was groomed under the shadow of Sharad Pawar and he never had political clout in Vidharbha, South and Central Maharashtra. Thirdly, what is his capability of getting MLAs elected in constituencies across Maharahstra?,” says Prof. Surendra Jondhale, a political analyst, commenting on the Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s future.
He also noted what a tough fight Ajit Pawar is facing from his nephew Yugendra Pawar for his own re-election from Baramati. “Even BJP and RSS followers are unhappy about Ajit Pawar joining the Mahayuti due to his tainted image,” says Mr. Jondhale, adding that Mr. Shinde is uncomfortable about two Marathas in the coalition’s leadership.
Sharad Pawar, who is known for switching sides according to where the political wind blows, will be the kingmaker after these elections, says Mr. Jondhale. “Sharad Pawar has very strategically fielded his candidates. He had done this in 1999 when he cast Dilip Walse-Patil and Dhananjay Munde as fresh faces. In Ambegaon, his candidate (Devdatta Jayvantrao Nikam) was an ally to Dilip Walse-Patil. Knowing this, Sharad Pawar has fielded Mr. Nikam as he knows he will win. Sharad Pawar will be kingmaker and it is highly unlikely that he will reconcile with the deserters. Most of Ajit Pawar’s MLAs will lose.”
Currently, NCP is contesting on 52 seats and NCP(SP) is fighting on 86 seats in these assembly elections. Of these, the two factions will clash on 38 seats directly, with 20 seats spanning across Western Maharashtra – NCP’s sugar bastion. Moreover, NCP is also embroiled in two ‘friendly fights’ with its Mahayuti ally BJP in Ashti and Morshi and two with its other ally Shiv Sena in Anushaktinagar and Mankhurd Shivajinagar.
An uncertain fate
In the immediate future, Maharashtra’s government formations seems murky. “The biggest question in these polls is which political party (of the six contesting) will get the highest number of seats. The number of independents or rebels elected in these elections – individual characters having political clout, like Nilesh Rane who is contesting on a Shiv Sena ticket, will decide the next coalition’s formation,” says Mr. Jondhale.
Fragmentation of Maharashtra-based parties has seeped deep into the State’s polity. Reconciliation between the two Shiv Senas or the two NCPs does not seem on the cards, adds Mr. Jondhale. He also does not see the BJP allying with either Mr. Thackeray or the senior Pawar, confirming that the current six-party fight is here to stay for a while.
Mumbai, Nov 05 (ANI): NCP-SCP chief Sharad Pawar with Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) chief Uddhav Thackeray during a joint press conference ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly election, at Silver Oak in Mumbai on Monday
However, what will happen to these fragmented parties in the long run? “Both Shiv Senas and NCPs should realise that their domain of influence is only in Maharashtra,” says Mr. Pawar. Likening this to how State-centric the politics in Tamil Nadu is, he says, “If they (NCP, Shiv Sena factions) are willing to talk about Maharashtrians, Maharashtra’s culture, Marathi language, Marathi-speaking culture, they will follow parties in West Bengal, Punjab, where regional parties have come to power in their own. Maybe this kind of metamorphosis of support base will lead to a Maharashtrian-based, genuinely federal political narrative.” He concludes that this may not happen in 2024, but indicates the results of these polls will pave the way for such kind of politics in the future.
Maharashtra’s 288-seat Assembly will go to polls in a single phase on November 20 and results will be announced on November 23.
Published – November 18, 2024 05:25 pm IST
