IPL playoff scenarios – What CSK, LSG, MI, RCB KKR and RR need to do to qualify

With just six games to go in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are still seven teams fighting for three spots. Here is a lowdown on the qualification prospects of each of them.

Punjab Kings

Played 13, Points 12, NRR -0.308
Remaining: vs Rajasthan Royals (h)

Punjab Kings’ defeat to Delhi Capitals significantly diminishes their qualification prospects as they can’t go beyond 14 points, but their situation might have been even worse in terms of net run rate (NRR) had Capitals held on to their chances. As it stands, their NRR of -0.308 is only marginally behind that of Kolkata Knight Riders (-0.256).

With three teams already above 14 and another on 14, Kings’ best bet will be if no other team gets to 14. That will happen if Royal Challengers Bangalore and Knight Riders lose their remaining matches. Then, Kings and Mumbai Indians will be level on 14 points, fighting for one spot. If Kings score 180 and win their last game by 20 runs, they’ll need Mumbai to lose by 26 runs, chasing the same score, to go above them on NRR. (Or, the sum of their result margins will need to be at least 46 runs.) That means the result margins required for Kings to qualify aren’t impossible to achieve. Had Capitals held on to their chances, these result margins required could have been far higher.

Since Kings play their last game before the other teams, they will have to win by as big a margin as possible, and then hope that all the other results go their way.

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Kings’ defeat is good news for all the other teams that are still in the fray and looking for every advantage they can get to qualify. For Lucknow Super Giants and Chennai Super Kings, 15 points feels a lot safer now as only Royal Challengers and Mumbai can get to 16, apart from Gujarat Titans who have already qualified. Those two teams will qualify for sure with 15 points if Royal Challengers lose to Sunrisers Hyderabad on Thursday. That result, if it happens, will also mean Mumbai will need a win by any margin to qualify, as they will be the only other team who can get to 16.

Royal Challengers, on the other hand, will have a chance even if they lose to Sunrisers, but for that to happen Mumbai will have to lose their last game. Meanwhile, the two other teams that can get to 14, Rajasthan Royals and Knight Riders, need to win their last matches, hope Mumbai lose theirs, and then win the NRR battle against all the teams finishing on 14. Royals (0.140) and Royal Challengers (0.166) are currently much better placed on that parameter than Knight Riders (-0.256).