Chennai Super Kings might have lost their last match against the Kolkata Knight Riders, but MS Dhoni and co. are still hot favourites for a top four finish in IPL 2023 after the league stage.
The same is true for the Gujarat Titans, who could seal qualification on Monday with a win against the Sunrisers Hyderabad in what is their last home game of the league stage.
With 9 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 512 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to make the play-offs, one other is a strong favourite to do so and a fourth team has a nearly two-thirds chance. Among the others, DC is now definitely out of the play-offs but the others are still in the running, though SRH only just about.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Monday, May 15 morning:
1. GT are already certain to finish in one of the top three slots in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is tied third. Their chances of being sole leader have improved to 63.1%. However, it is still theoretically possible that they miss out on NRR because they can still end up in a tie with upto three other teams for the third spot but that’s just a 1.6% chance
2. Despite their loss on Sunday, CSK are also almost certain of making it to the top four on points with their chances of finishing in that bracket either singly or jointly now at 94.9%.
3.MI are in third place, and their chances of making the top four on points have edged up to 89.1%, though that includes scenarios where they’re tied for the fourth spot.
4. In fourth spot currently, LSG have a near two-thirds chance (65.2% to be precise) of making the top four. Once again that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams.
5.RCB have moved up to fifth after Sunday’s win and their chances of finishing in the top four have doubled to 43.8% though this includes situations of teams tied on points for the fourth spot.
6. Currently in sixth place after Sunday’s loss, RR‘s chances of making the top four have plummeted to 18.8%. They can do no better than tied fourth, and that’s if they win their remaining game and other results fall in place.
7. PBKS are down to eighth place, but an extra game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points are better, at 43.8%, than RR, which is above them on the points table.
8.KKR have moved up to seventh place with Sunday’s win, but cannot finish better than tied fourth with between one and five other teams. Their chances of achieving that now stand at 21.1%.
9. Ninth placed SRH can, like KKR, at best tie for fourth spot on points and their chances of managing even that are just 7%.
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over. They became the first team to be eliminated following Saturday’s loss to PBKS.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 512 possible result combinations, SRH finishes in the top four on points in only 36 of them. That translates to a 7% chance of making the top four. We do not take net run rates or No Results into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
The same is true for the Gujarat Titans, who could seal qualification on Monday with a win against the Sunrisers Hyderabad in what is their last home game of the league stage.
With 9 matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 512 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to make the play-offs, one other is a strong favourite to do so and a fourth team has a nearly two-thirds chance. Among the others, DC is now definitely out of the play-offs but the others are still in the running, though SRH only just about.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the number crunching to determine how the teams stand as of Monday, May 15 morning:
1. GT are already certain to finish in one of the top three slots in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is tied third. Their chances of being sole leader have improved to 63.1%. However, it is still theoretically possible that they miss out on NRR because they can still end up in a tie with upto three other teams for the third spot but that’s just a 1.6% chance
2. Despite their loss on Sunday, CSK are also almost certain of making it to the top four on points with their chances of finishing in that bracket either singly or jointly now at 94.9%.
3.MI are in third place, and their chances of making the top four on points have edged up to 89.1%, though that includes scenarios where they’re tied for the fourth spot.
4. In fourth spot currently, LSG have a near two-thirds chance (65.2% to be precise) of making the top four. Once again that includes scenarios in which they are only joint fourth, some of them with multiple teams.
5.RCB have moved up to fifth after Sunday’s win and their chances of finishing in the top four have doubled to 43.8% though this includes situations of teams tied on points for the fourth spot.
6. Currently in sixth place after Sunday’s loss, RR‘s chances of making the top four have plummeted to 18.8%. They can do no better than tied fourth, and that’s if they win their remaining game and other results fall in place.
7. PBKS are down to eighth place, but an extra game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points are better, at 43.8%, than RR, which is above them on the points table.
8.KKR have moved up to seventh place with Sunday’s win, but cannot finish better than tied fourth with between one and five other teams. Their chances of achieving that now stand at 21.1%.
9. Ninth placed SRH can, like KKR, at best tie for fourth spot on points and their chances of managing even that are just 7%.
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over. They became the first team to be eliminated following Saturday’s loss to PBKS.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 512 possible result combinations, SRH finishes in the top four on points in only 36 of them. That translates to a 7% chance of making the top four. We do not take net run rates or No Results into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
