Going ahead, Dr DK Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor, EY India said that the FY25 real GDP growth will be in the range of 7 to 7.5%, expecting continued high capital expenditure growth in the forthcoming full year FY25 budget.“There is reasonable fiscal space available to the government in spite of the recent elections. With fiscal deficit at 5.6% of GDP, buoyancy of gross taxes at 1.4 in FY24, and a substantive rise in RBI dividends, the GoI is in a position to lay down a solid foundation for medium term growth averaging 7%,” he says.
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Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist at Anand Rathi says, “This year, we expect a meaningful pickup in private consumption and a possible modest deceleration in investment growth. With robust growth and declining inflation, the Indian economy is in an enviable position, poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world.”
We take a look at 10 key takeaways from India’s Q4 GDP and FY24 GDP growth data:
1. India’s economic performance continues to exceed expectations. The country’s GDP growth for the 2024 fiscal year is provisionally estimated at 8.2%, surpassing the 7.6% projection made by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in February, despite the agricultural sector’s lackluster performance. These provisional estimates, based on updated data, provide a more accurate assessment and will remain relevant until the NSO releases its next estimate for fiscal 2024 in 2025.
2. The Indian government has revised the country’s economic growth for the 2023/24 fiscal year to 8.2%, making India as the fastest-growing major economy worldwide. This figure is higher than the previous estimate of 7.6%. In comparison, China recorded an economic growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024.
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3. Based on the data provided by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the real GDP is projected to reach Rs 173.82 lakh crore in the fiscal year 2023-24. This is in comparison to the first revised estimates of GDP for the previous fiscal year, 2022-23, which stood at Rs 160.71 lakh crore. For the March quarter of 2023-24, the real GDP is estimated to be Rs 47.24 lakh crore, compared to Rs 43.84 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
4. The nominal GDP, which is calculated at current prices, is expected to reach Rs 295.36 lakh crore in 2023-24, compared to Rs 269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23. This represents a growth rate of 9.6 percent. In the March quarter, the nominal GDP is projected to be Rs 78.28 lakh crore, against Rs 71.23 lakh crore in the year-ago period, reflecting a growth rate of 9.9 percent.
5. The manufacturing sector witnessed a significant acceleration in GVA growth, reaching 8.9 per cent in the March quarter, a notable increase from the 0.9 percent growth recorded in the same quarter of the previous year. Mining GVA growth also saw an uptick, rising to 4.3 per cent in the fourth quarter from 2.9 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.
6. The construction sector experienced robust growth, expanding by 8.7 per cent in the quarter, surpassing the 7.4 per cent growth observed in the same period of 2022-23. However, the agriculture sector saw a deceleration in growth, slowing down to 0.6 per cent from 7.6 per cent in the previous year. The electricity, gas, water supply, and other utility services segment maintained steady growth, increasing slightly to 7.7 per cent during the fourth quarter from 7.3 per cent in the year-ago period.
7. In the services sector, GVA growth in trade, hotel, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting moderated to 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared to a growth of 7 per cent a year ago. Financial, real estate, and professional services experienced a slowdown in growth, registering 7.6 per cent in the March 2023 quarter, down from 9.2 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Public administration, defence, and other services saw an improvement in growth, expanding by 7.8 per cent in the quarter, up from 4.7 per cent in the same quarter a year ago.
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8. Although real GDP remains approximately 7.5% below its pre-pandemic trajectory, domestic strengths and a focused policy approach have set the economy on a robust growth path, mitigating the permanent GDP loss caused by the pandemic, says Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL.
9. Signs of a mild slowdown were evident in the fourth quarter. This growth moderation affected both the industry and services sectors. On the demand side, investment growth decelerated this quarter. While private final consumption expenditure growth remains sluggish at 4.0%, the primary demand-side impetus is coming from gross fixed capital formation, which has grown by 9.0%. The external sector drag has diminished. In Q4, the contribution of net exports became positive after being negative for three consecutive quarters.
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10. Investment growth has been predominantly driven by the Government of India’s capital expenditure increase. The full-year CGA data indicates a capital expenditure growth of 28.8%. For four consecutive years, the government has maintained an average capital expenditure growth of 29.7%. This significant investment push by the government is the main growth driver, enabling India to perform well despite ongoing global headwinds.
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