How you can pick the 2024 Melbourne Cup winner using these simple lessons from the history of Australia’s greatest race

Everyone seems to turn into a racing expert come Melbourne Cup day, but picking a winner in the nation’s most famous race is a lottery for most Australians.  

With a look at the history books Daily Mail Australia can reveal what once-a-year punters need to know when selecting a horse that can come out a winner over the 3200-metre course.    

Some trends are clear over the Cup’s 162 years, and that evidence could be just the piece of knowledge you need to cash in on Tuesday. 

Before placing a bet, it’s a great idea to take a look at factors including the ages, sex, colour, weights, trainers and jockeys of past winners. 

Picking a winner in the nation’s most famous race can seem a lottery for most once-a-year punters – but knowledge of past trends can be a handy guide

1. AGE 

Four and five-year-olds are the best bet to win the Cup, with horses of those ages winning on 46 and 45 occasions respectively. 

Three-year-old horses, with 23 wins, usually struggle in running out the two miles against more seasoned opposition, and those seven years and older (with 15 victories) find it hard to produce consistently.

Six-year-olds have a strong recent record, with five winners since 2010 including Prince Of Penzance, Almandin and Verry Elleegant.

This year’s five-year-olds are: Sharp ‘N’ Smart, Land Legend, Knight’s Choice, Valiant King, Manzoice and Saint George. Positivity and Zardozi are the four year olds in the field.

The six-year-old field is made up of Buckaroo, Athabascan, Sea King, Mostly Cloudy, The Map and Trust in You.

With a little inside help and a look at the history books, Daily Mail Australia can reveal what you need to know when selecting a horse that can stay the 3,200m course

2. SEX

Flemington’s biggest day has long been a male’s world in an equine sense.  

Only 14 mares have won the Melbourne Cup and Verry Elleegant was the last to do so, in 2021. Makybe Diva did it three times and completed her hat-trick in 2005. 

Stallions have won the race 73 times and geldings on 54 occasions. 

The stallions, also referred to as ‘entires’, in this year’s race are: Circle of Fire, Warp Speed, Okita Soushi and Saint George.

The geldings are: Vauban, Buckaroo, Kovalica, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, Just Fine, Land Legend, Absurde, Athabascan, Knight’s Choice, Onesmoothoperator, Sea King, Valiant King, Fancy Man, Interpretation, Manzoice, Mostly Cloudy and Trust in You.

Zardozi, Positivity and The Map are mares. 

Some trends are clear over the Cup’s 162 years, and that evidence could be just the tip you need to cash in on Tuesday

3. COLOUR

The most successful horse colour at the Cup since its inception in 1861 has been bay, winning 72 times, including Gold Trip in 2022.

However, this is almost certainly because it is by far the most common colour for racehorses.

Brown horses have won 38 times while chestnuts have been first past the post on 35 occasions. Greys have claimed the race only six times and black animals five times. 

Buckaroo, Circle of Fire, Warp Speed, Kovalica, Sharp ‘N’ Smart, Just Fine, Absurde, Athabascan, Knight’s Choice, Okita Soushi, Onesmoothoperator, Zardozi, Fancy Man, Manzoice, Mostly Cloudy, Positivity and The Map are all bay.

4. WEIGHT

The last three horses to carry more than 56.5kg to victory are Makybe Diva (58kg in 2005), Verry Elleegant (57kg in 2021) and top-weight Gold Trip (57.5kg in 2022).

Since 2000, the most successful winning weights have been 51-51.5kg, 52-52.5kg and 54-54.5kg, with four wins from each of those ranges. 

Horses fitting into those weights this year are: Buckaroo (54.5kg), Circle of Fire (54.5kg), Warp Speed (54.5kg), Kovalica (53.5kg), Sharp ‘N’ Smart (53.5kg), Just Fine (53kg), Land Legend (53kg), Absurde, (52.5kg), Athabascan (52kg), Knight’s Choice (51.5kg), Okita Soushi (51kg), Onesmoothoperator (51kg) and Zardozi (51kg).

Makybe Diva’s 58kg in the last of her three consecutive wins remains the heaviest weight a horse has carried to victory since 2000. 

The most successful horse colour at the Cup since its inception in 1861 has been bay, winning 72 times, including Gold Trip in 2022 (above)

5. BARRIER

All eyes were on the mounting yard on Saturday for the barrier draw, with everyone keen to see where their chosen horse would jump come 3pm on Tuesday.

The most successful Melbourne Cup barrier has been 11 with eight winners, and four in the past 30 years. The most recent horse to win from the gate was Americain in 2010.

Since barriers were introduced in 1958, more horses have won from the four outside barriers (21 to 24) than have won from the four inside (1 to 4).

A wide barrier means the horse must either push forward hard at the start of the race to secure a spot near the running rail – and use much energy in doing so – or go towards the back of the field and hope to unleash a big finish. 

No horse had won from barrier 18 until Verry Elleegant saluted in 2021. Barriers 7 and 15 have been equally unlucky, producing one winner. 

No horse has won from barriers 6, 7, 12, 15 or 24 for the past 40 years. 

Knight’s Choice has drawn barrier 6 this year, Absurde will jump from barrier 7, Onesmoothoperator drew barrier 12, Sharp ‘N’ Smart starts from barrier 15 and Circle of Fire will have the most work to do, jumping out of barrier 24. 

Race favourite Vauban has drawn barrier 21. 

The last three horses to carry more than 56.5kg to victory are Makybe Diva (58kg in 2005), Verry Elleegant (57kg in 2021) and top-weight Gold Trip (57.5kg in 2022)

6. JOCKEYS

Damien Oliver (1995, 2002, 2013), Glen Boss (2003, 2004, 2005), and Kerrin McEvoy (2000, 2016, 2018) are the most successful Melbourne Cup jockeys of the past 40 years. 

Mark Zahra has won the last two consecutive Melbourne Cups aboard Gold Trip and Without a Fight, and will ride Circle of Fire in 2024.

Jye McNeil won the 2020 Melbourne Cup on Twilight Payment and rides Just Fine this year. Craig Williams steered Vow and Declare to glory in 2019 and this year is aboard Onesmoothoperator.

Michelle Payne is the only female jockey to have won the race, taking Prince of Penzance to victory in 2015.

Hollie Doyle will ride Sea King for Harry Eustace while Jamie Kah is on Okita Soushi for Ciaron Maher. 

7. SADDLECLOTH NUMBER

The most successful saddlecloth number has been 4 with a dozen wins in the race’s history. Verry Elleegant won carrying that number in 2021. 

No 12 has scored 11 wins, as has No 1, most recently with Gold Trip last year. No 6 has saluted ten times, most recently with Twilight Payment (2020), while No 5 and No 8 have eight wins each. 

This year, Breakup carries No 4, Daqiansweet Junior is No 12, Gold Trip returns at No 1, Soulcombe comes in at No 6, the favourite Vauban is No 5 and No 8 is Right You Are. 

Michelle Payne is the only female jockey to win the Cup, taking Prince of Penzance to victory in 2015 (above). Rachel King, Jamie Kah and Hollie Doyle have mounts in this year’s race

8. TRAINERS

International trainers have had lots of success in the Melbourne Cup in recent years, and have come to dominate the winners.

Irishman Dermot Weld was the first overseas raider to conquer with Vintage Crop in 1993 and later Media Puzzle in 2002.

Japanese trainer Katsuhiko Sumii had the 2006 winner Delta Blues, while Frenchman Alain de Royer Dupre became the 150th winner of the Cup with Americain in 2010.

Compatriot Mikel Dezangles followed the next year with Dunaden and the German-trained stayer Protectionist, prepared by Andreas Wohler, scored in 2014.

2023 winner Without a Fight was by Irish duo Anthony and Sam Freedman.

The race has been increasingly dominated by horses bred and trained overseas, where there is more emphasis on long-distance racing compared to Australia where most races are less than a mile long.

The trainers to have won the Melbourne Cup previously with entrants this year are Ciaron Maher (2022), Chris Waller (2021), Joseph O’Brien (2017, 2020), Danny O’Brien (2019), Gai Waterhouse (2013), Lee Freedman (2004, 2005) and Sheila Laxon (2001).

Trainers to have won the Melbourne Cup previously with entrants this year are Cairon Maher, Chris Waller, Danny O’Brien, Gai Waterhouse (above) and Mike Moroney

9. NUMBER OF WORDS IN A HORSE’S NAME

Horses with just one word in their names have also been the most successful in the Cup, having won 89 times.

This year’s one-word chances are: Vauban, Buckaroo, Kovalica, Absurde, Onesmoothoperator (technically), Zardozi, Manzoice and Positivity.

This year’s two-word entrants are: Warp Speed, Just Fine, Land Legend, Knight’s Choice, Okita Soushi, Sea King, Valiant King, Fancy Man, Mostly Cloudy, Saint George and The Map. 

Only eight three-word names have won the Cup, however Without a Fight claimed the honours just last year.

10. BEWARE THE OUTSIDER

Since 1983, just five outright favourites have won: Fiorente in 2013, Makybe Diva in 2005 and  2004, Jezabeel in 1998, Might And Power in 1997 and Let’s Elope in 1991

Since 1983, just five outright favourites have won: Fiorente ($7) in 2013, Makybe Diva ($4.50) in 2005 and at $3.50 in 2004, Jezabeel ($7) in 1998, Might And Power ($4.50) in 1997 and Let’s Elope ($4) in 1991.

Last year’s winner Without a Fight went into the race as joint favourite at $8. 

Since the Cup was first run, four horses have won at odds of 100-1: The Pearl (1871), Wotan (1936), Old Rowley (1940) and Prince of Penzance three years ago.

Be wary when it comes to those at big odds, and there are several this year. 

Knight’s Choice is paying 151-1, Fancy Man has blown out to 101-1 along with Mostly Cloudy and Positivity while Trust in You may be hard for you to place your trust in, given it is also a 151-1 roughie.