A video featuring US polling guru Nate Silver and columnist Ezra Klein discussing JD Vance as American entrepreneur Peter Thiel‘s political bet, which might “pay off worst” during the presidential campaign, is widely circulating on social media. However, JD Vance, now newly elected as the vice president of the US following Trump’s presidential election win, has proven Nate Silver’s claim “wrong.”
Sharing the video on social media platform X, one user wrote: “Nate Silver and the NYT claiming that JD Vance was Peter Thiel‘s worst political bet ever half way through the campaign perfectly sums up how stupid legacy media is”
“Before now, you would have said JD Vance was Peter Thiel’s political bet. That paid off best. Yeah. And now it might be his political bet that pays off worst. If these guys are so good at making bets, what are they missing in politics?” Ezra Klein asked Silver in the video.
“He (Peter Thiel) did back Trump at a time when that seemed like a big risk to take. It seemed like it was probably going to be the wrong bet, but no. I mean, these guys often are pretty dumb about politics, right? And so, like, why do they succeed despite that? I think because the idea of having a longer time horizon, number one, and being willing to make these plus expected value, high-risk, high-upside bets, and gathering a portfolio of them repeatedly—making enough of these bets effectively hedges your risk. Those two ideas are so good that it makes up for the fact that these guys often have terrible judgment and are kind of vainglorious,” Nate Silver replied.
Vance, who was relatively new to national politics when nominated as Trump’s running mate, had skillfully cultivated relationships with billionaires and Silicon Valley titans, according to a CBS News report. His relationship with Thiel has been particularly influential in shaping his political career.
Thiel not only hired Vance at his global investment firm, Mithril Capital, in 2017, but he also provided significant financial backing for Vance’s political journey, including a $15 million donation to Vance’s 2022 Ohio Senate campaign. Thiel’s investment helped Vance secure a hard-fought GOP primary victory and eventually capture the Senate seat. The former PayPal CEO also played a pivotal role in bringing Vance to his first meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in February 2021.
