A man examines the site of his house, which was destroyed by the landslide in Chooralmala on July 31, 2024.
| Photo Credit: Thulasi Kakkat
The story so far:Massive landslides hit the district of Wayanad in northern Kerala in the early hours of July 30, with continuous torrential rainfall triggering large-scale death and destruction in Mundakkai, Chooralmala, and Meppadi, and entire villages being washed away. The death toll stands at 215, though the number of missing people indicate that the real toll will be higher.
What are the possible causes?
Most experts are clear that there are a number of causative factors behind any landslide, both natural and anthropogenic. Almost half of Kerala’s land area —19,301 sq km or 49.7% of the total landmass — is prone to landslides, according to an assessment by the Geological Survey of India (GSI). The heavy rainfall in the region and the slope of the Western Ghats mean that Wayanad is uniquely vulnerable to landslides, and 31.54% of the district is highly susceptible, according to research at IIT-Delhi.
However, human factors have exacerbated the danger of a natural calamity; increasing construction and changes in crop patterns are among the possible culprits. The Wayanad region has become a tourist hotspot over the last few years, with homestays and monsoon tourism being the latest trends. Ecologist Madhav Gadgil has pointed to the construction of resorts and artificial lakes, as well as recently abandoned quarries, as among the developmental activities which should not have occurred in the sensitive zone. Land use changes which have occurred over a longer period of time, starting with the British-era tea plantations that surround the disaster site, are also potential factors, and have continued in the post-Independence era. A study on plantation-induced forest degradation in Wayanad, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health in 2022, found that there has been a 62% reduction in forest cover between 1950 and 2018, coupled with a 1,800% increase in the area under plantation. Such monocropping leads to a loosening of the topsoil that was once held in place by the roots of a forest.
Climate change has also played a role, albeit an indirect one, leading to changes in rainfall patterns in the State. The warming of the Arabian Sea is allowing the formation of deep cloud systems, leading to extremely heavy rainfall over a shorter period, according to S. Abhilash, a senior scientist at the Cochin University of Science and Technology. In recent years, such heavy rainfall events have been increasing, even as the number of rainy days in the monsoon season has been decreasing. Despite the record 527 mm of rainfall that was recorded in Mundakkai over the 48 hours before the landslide, Wayanad has seen only normal rainfall averages during this monsoon, while Kerala as a whole has seen deficits, according to India Meteorological Department data. “What was once a cool, humid environment with year-round drizzles and monsoon rains, is turning into one marked by drier, hotter summers and intense downpours during the monsoons. This change has increased the risk of landslides. Dry soils absorb less water and heavy rainfalls cause run-offs that can lead to landslides, such as the ones we’ve seen this week,” said Mariam Zachariah, a researcher at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change.
How can the Western Ghats be protected?
Mr. Gadgil led the high-profile Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel, which submitted its report in 2011, recommending that the entire region of the Western Ghats, spanning 1,29,000 square km across six States, be declared an Ecologically Sensitive Zone (ESZ). It wanted the area to be divided into three broad zones — ESZ 1, ESZ 2 and ESZ 3 — with strict restrictions on development to be imposed on the first two regions. All three taluks of Wayanad fell under ESZ 1, which recommended a ban on land use changes, a moratorium on mining and quarrying, limits on hydropower projects, no new railway lines or major roads, and strictly regulated minimal ecotourism. In fact, the village of Meppadi, which has been washed away, had been specifically spotlighted as one of 18 proposed ecologically sensitive localities in Kerala. However, the Gadgil panel report was rejected by all State governments, following a public backlash on the impact of the report on livelihoods and economic growth in the region.
A panel led by former ISRO chief, K. Kasturirangan, watered down some of the Gadgil report’s recommendations, stipulating that only 37% of the Western Ghats were to be declared ecologically sensitive, though much of Wayanad still fell within the area to be protected. However, this report was not implemented either.
A draft notification on Western Ghats protection, first issued in March 2014, has remained in the draft stage for over a decade, with its sixth version being issued by the Union government just a day after the Wayanad landslide struck; a 2022 committee set up to incorporate States’ concerns and balance the “conservation aspects of the disaster prone pristine ecosystem, and the rights, privileges, needs and developmental aspirations of the region” is yet to submit its report.
Were landslide warnings issued?
The IMD issues warnings for heavy rainfall, in a colour-coded system. However, in the week before the landslides, the alert was largely yellow, which does not call for action. It was only after the landslide occurred that a red alert was issued for July 30.
The GSI has been designated the nodal agency for landslide studies, and has been given the responsibility of evolving an early warning system and protocols for landslide risk reduction. However, this is still in the experimental stage and will take four or five more years to be ready for public use, a senior GSI official said. Regional landslide forecast bulletins have been issued to State and district authorities in Wayanad since the onset of the 2024 monsoon, but only predicted “low” probability on most days, with “moderate” probability predicted on July 30.
Another problem is the human angle. Minor landslides occur frequently in the region, and many villagers are hesitant to cooperate in evacuation efforts, fearful of losing their holdings, say local officials. A proposal to build climate-resilient community shelters in safe areas, using materials and building techniques which can withstand the vagaries of the weather, is yet to be implemented.
