Will BJP return to power in Gujarat for a seventh consecutive term and buck the trend of alternating governments in Himachal Pradesh or will Congress turn the tide in their favour? The results will be known in a few hours from now with counting of votes to start on Thursday.
The results will also be crucial for the Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) and will determine if the party gets a chance to establish itself nationally and emerge as a serious contender to the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Exit polls have predicted that BJP is likely to sweep Gujarat while Himachal will see a neck-and-neck fight between the saffron party and Congress.
Two pollsters have, however, forecast that BJP would edge past Congress in Himachal by a slight margin. It must be noted that exit polls are prone to going wrong.
BJP leaders are already in touch with independents as their support will be crucial in case of a hung assembly.
The outcome of both the elections will be an important indicator of PM Narendra Modi’s popularity for the national elections slated to be held in 2024. It will also be a springboard for BJP’s preparations for elections to Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh next year.
BJP Eying Records In Gujarat And Himachal
If the exit polls prove to be correct, BJP will be hoping to set a few new records.
A victory in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat will make BJP the only party other than the CPI(M) to have won seven straight assembly elections. The CPI(M), which ruled West Bengal for 34 years from 1977 to 2011, had also won seven straight elections.
In case of Himachal, no party has won a back-to-back election in the hill state after 1985.
READ | Gujarat Exit Poll 2022: BJP Likely To Win Record Number Of Seats In PM Modi’s Home State
Gujarat Election Results: What Is The Scenario?
As per the ABP News-CVoter Exit Poll Results 2022, the BJP is expected to bag anywhere between 128-140 seats in Gujarat and secure a vote share of 49.4 per cent. In the 2017 election, the BJP won 99 seats in Gujarat and the Congress 77.
The BJP’s best tally so far came in 2002, where it bagged 127 seats. The elections, conducted in the aftermath of the post-Godhra riots, saw Narendra Modi returning as the chief minister.
So far, Congress’ tally of 149 in the 1985 Assembly election hold the record for most number of seats won by a party in the state. No party has been able to cross 130-seat mark since then.
READ | Himachal Exit Poll 2022: Close Contest In Hill State, Slight Edge For BJP
Himachal Election Results: What Is The Scenario?
In Himachal Pradesh, where voters have traditionally changed the government every five years, ABP News-CVoter Exit Poll has predcited that BJP will be able to retain the hill state by winning 33 to 41 seats.
Congress will be breathing down BJP’s neck but the projected seat range (24 to 32 assembly seats) suggest that it will not be enough for the grand old party to return to power.
With independents pegged to get 0 to 4 seats, as per the ABP-C Voter exit poll, they are set to play a big role in case of a hung assembly.
In Himachal Pradesh, the BJP won 44 seats and Congress 21 in 2017. In 2017, BJP won 48.79 per cent vote share, whereas Congress won 41.46 per cent.
