Biparjoy is likely to cross Saurashtra, Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) around noon of June 15 as very severe cyclone with wind speed reaching 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph, India Meteorological Department has warned on Sunday.
Very severe cyclonic storm, Biparjoy over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-northeastwards with a speed of 9 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into an Extremely Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 165 to 175 kmph gusting to 195 kmph and lay about 580 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 480 km south-southwest of Porbandar, 530 km south-southwest of Dwarka, 610 km south-southwest of Naliya and 780 km south of Karachi.
“This cyclone has again gone rapid intensification (2nd in its lifetime) and intensified by 75 kmph to reach peak intensity of 195 kmph. Biparjoy is also the strongest cyclone in Arabian Sea (including all months) after cyclone Tauktae,” said Vineet Kumar Singh, researcher from Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University.
“Also, this is only the 2nd time in north Indian ocean history, that both the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal had a category 3 or higher intensity cyclone in the same pre-monsoon season. Only such incidence was in 2019,” he added.
Biparjoy’s slow movement raised concerns about weak monsoon conditions till at least mid-June over interior parts of the country. IMD’s extended range forecast released on Thursday showed rains picking up during last week of June and rainfall over interior parts of the country during the week of June 30 to July 6. Rains haven’t started in interior parts of the country yet as forecast by IMD.
“As per IMD, cyclone Biparjoy has intensified rapidly from deep depression (55.65 kmph) to very severe cyclone (121 KMPH) in just 24 hours. That is an increase in wind speed of 65 kmph in 24 hourrs, which is rapid intensification. High sea surface temperatures (31-32 degree C) which is 2-3 degree above normal; high ocean heat content has led to very warm ocean surface and subsurface conditions. Along with this vigorous upper atmospheric level outflow, and moderate wind shear has aided the system to intensify rapidly,” Vineet Singh had explained on Wednesday.
Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, had tweeted that the imprint of climate change on the Arabian Sea is clear. “The increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea is tightly linked to the rising ocean temperatures and increased availability of moisture under global warming. Arabian Sea used to be cool, but now it is a warm pool.”
