The assassination attempt on Donald Trump has provided the Republican leader with a unique opportunity to emerge as a taller leader, US political scientist Ian Bremmer told NDTV in an interview.
Mr Bremmer, author and founder of political risk research firm Eurasia Group, explained how the shooting at Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday will impact the US’s political landscape in an election year and in the long-term.
Boost To Trump’s Image
“This is a boost for Trump, the fact that he stood up immediately after being shot, with blood on his face, with a fist raised and said, ‘fight, fight, fight’. That is an iconic image that will go down in the history of US and will certainly be replayed over and over in the media across the media and by Trump and his supporters in this campaign,” Mr Bremmer said, adding that it will increase support for the former President.
“He will appear in Milwaukee on Monday at the Republican National Convention as ‘Lazarus risen’ and there will be incredible support.” Lazarus is a Biblical figure who Jesus brings back to life four days after his death.
This boost in image, he said, also makes it more likely for Trump to win the November election.
What Changes For Biden
On the Democrats side, Mr Bremmer said, Saturday’s developments have made it less likely for US President Joe Biden to “stand down”. “There has been a lot of pressure since the disastrous debate Biden had against Trump. There was a lot of internal opposition in the party. That is now off… in the most tragic way possible. Biden had not been inclined to step down, but everyone around him was telling him he needed to. Now he has more time to resist that. The story has moved elsewhere,” the political scientist said.
Impact On US Politics
Explaining how the assassination attempt is likely to impact the US political landscape, Mr Bremmer said it has created the potential for more violence and social instability “at a time when Americans are highly polarised and are being fed enormous amounts of disinformation”. He also said political opposition are now being treated as “enemies”.
Asked how the country will respond to Saturday’s attack, the political scientist said, “There is a need for a 9/11-type response where the US rallies together and denounces political violence of all sorts. What I fear is going to happen is much more like January 6 (when Trump supporters stormed Capitol Hill). “For a couple of days and weeks, a lot of Americans were denouncing violence, Democrats and Republicans saying this is horrible, but very quickly, January 6 became a threat to democracy for Democrats, but for Republicans, these were patriots who should be lionised and are heroes. I fear that while today, there is outrage across the political spectrum, it will be weaponised.”
An Opportunity For Trump
Mr Bremmer said Trump’s response to the assassination will be critical to how the narrative around it shapes up. “Joe Biden gave a unifying statement. But it’s really about Trump, he was the one who could have been killed. If he wants to stand and be a leader, rally people around a cause greater than him, he is in a unique position to do that. Unfortunately, there is nothing about his history that implies that he will do that,” he said.
The Republican leader’s political journey, Mr Bremmer said, has been about “dividing the country into us vs them”. “That’s how he made his billions and how he became President,” he said.
US’s Image In World
Mr Bremmer said that US is the most powerful country in the world, militarily, economically and technologically. “But America’s political system and democracy are in crisis in a way it is not true in India, Europe, Japan or South Korea. Allies around the world are deeply troubled about that. And America’s adversaries, particularly Russians, North Koreans and Iranians, see this as great news, an opportunity.”
Russians, he said, are “pouring gasoline on fire”. “They want US system to collapse,” he said.
When he was a student, Mr Bremmer said, the US was “admired politically”. “The US won the Cold War because its ideas were better, values were better, political system was better.” While the US still has the strongest military, currency and technology, “no one around the world looks at the US political system and thinks I want my political system to work like this”.
On Political Extremism In US
The political scientist said that the US, besides being the most dysfunctional of major democracies, also has large gun ownership and this includes military style weapons. “The only country which has more gun ownership than US is Yemen, and Yemen is in the middle of a civil war,” he said.
This gun culture has been complimented by unaddressed mental illness, drug use and homelessness that has gone unaddressed, creating a very violent environment. “It has created tinder for an explosive political environment. The reason we haven’t seen more political violence is because the US devotes an incredible amount of money and resources to prevent it.” He said it is a big question why the Secret Service was “caught unawares yesterday”. “This is clearly a major failure of the Secret Service and there will be a lot of investigation. What happened that allowed a shooter to get so close to former President Trump and pop off 6-8 shots, including one that hit him?”
On What’s Next
The US, he said, is likely to see more security and surveillance after the assassination attempt on Trump. “Anyone who travels to the White House knows it’s very different than it was before 9/11. That’s a depressing thing but reality. I suspect we are moving much more towards monitoring of individuals,” he said, also underlining privacy and human rights issues that will come with it.
