How accurate were the Exit Polls in 2014 and 2009?
In 2014, an average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats. However, courtesy the ‘Modi wave’, the NDA ended up winning 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44. In 2009, when the UPA came back to power, an average of four exit polls underestimated the tally of the winner. They gave 195 seats to the UPA and 185 to the NDA. The UPA had finally won 262 seats, compared to the NDA’s 158. Of these, the Congress won 206 seats and the BJP 116.
Congress to skip exit poll debates, BJP reacts
The announcement of the Congress that it will boycott the exit poll debates evoked a strong reaction from the BJP on Friday, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah accusing the Congress of being in “denial mode”.
The controversy began when AICC media and publicity department chairman Pawan Khera wrote on X: “Our statement on the reason for not participating in #ExitPolls. Voters have cast their votes and their verdict has been secured. The results will be out on 4th June. Prior to that, we do not see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP. Read More
We have numbers to form next govt: Amit Shah
Maintaining that “we are in a comfortable position” and “already have the numbers” to form the next government, BJP leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said while he agrees that a strong Opposition is good for democracy, “it’s the janata (people) who will decide that” and it cannot be determined by the wishes of a section. Shah made these remarks in an interview with The Indian Express at his residence in New Delhi, shortly after polling ended for the sixth phase of the elections – the seventh and last phase is on June 1.
What BJP did differently this Lok Sabha polls
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third Lok Sabha campaign saw some new themes being deployed, even as much of the hectic campaign style of the BJP under him remained the same throughout the gruelling 40-day-long cycle. As always, he led from the front. If Congress manifesto became a target after the party claimed a new BJP government would target the Constitution, the Insta reels comprised videos of Modi directly addressing select people at his rallies. The small meetings involved BJP’s Rajya Sabha MPs, plus those who could not get Lok Sabha tickets. Read More
Suggesting a possible reshaping of Opposition politics after the 2024 elections, Sharad Pawar has said that regional parties will move closer or, in some cases, even merge with the Congress. Among the tallest leaders in the Opposition today, the former Union Minister and Maharashtra Chief Minister Pawar told The Indian Express: “In the next couple of years, several regional parties will associate more closely with the Congress. Or they may look at the option of merging with the Congress if they believe that is the best for their party.”
Asked whether that applied to his own party, the NCP, the chief of the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) said, “I don’t see any difference between the Congress and us….Ideologically, we belong to the Gandhi, Nehru line of thinking.” Read the full interview.
Maharashtra is a critical piece of the election puzzle this time — since the last Lok Sabha election of 2019, the traditional “communal vs secular” battlelines have been rearranged beyond recognition, after Shiv Sena and NCP splintered, and both government and Opposition were reconstituted. On the Opposition side, an unlikely alliance has taken shape — between Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP (SP) led by Sharad Pawar. At Matoshri in the leafy Mumbai enclave of Kalanagar, The Indian Express caught up with Uddhav Thackeray, the man who is most in the spotlight. Read his full interview.
