As the U.S. presidential race reaches its climax, Donald Trump’s camp is already seemingly declaring victory despite neck-and-neck polls. The shift in momentum can be traced back to a few key events that have worked in Trump’s favour.
In the last six months the US election race has seen a roller coaster ride with Biden exiting the race to hand over the baton to Kamala Harris and swinging the opinion polls in Kamala’s favour. However, Kamala’s romance with the voters didn’t last for long.
A significant turning point came with the assassination attempt on Trump, which not only rallied his base but also shifted public sentiment in his favour. Portraying him as a resilient leader, whom the much touted ‘deep state’ wants dead.
Meanwhile, Harris struggled to maintain a clear and compelling narrative. Her inability to effectively counter Trump’s strong stance on issues like immigration left her campaign vulnerable.
Here are six factors working in Trumps’ favour and put him at poll position ahead of the crucial polling day.
Strong Stand on Illegal Immigration
Since his first tenure as U.S. president, Donald Trump has been a vocal advocate for “Make in America” policies, firmly opposing illegal immigration. His 2016 campaign heavily leaned on the narrative that foreigners were taking jobs from Americans. During his presidency, Trump started constructing the Mexican border wall, ramped up deportations of undocumented immigrants, and introduced stricter regulations for legal immigration, making it harder for people to enter the country.
Trump has carried this hardline stance into the current election, highlighting what he calls Biden’s failure to manage the southern border crisis. Trump hasn’t held back on attacking Kamala Harris either, dubbing her the “border czar” and pinning the blame for the border situation squarely on her. In a controversial debate moment, Trump even perpetuated a false narrative, claiming illegal immigrants in Ohio were eating pets and attacking locals.
Anti-Incumbency Against Joe Biden
Joe Biden’s final year in office has been overshadowed by two major wars, highlighting his perceived inability to bring either conflict to an end. Criticism has mounted as the U.S. and its Western allies continue to fund Ukraine’s prolonged struggle against Russia amidst rising inflation. Meanwhile, Israel has defied U.S. calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, escalating its military actions across the Middle East, including Lebanon and Iran.
Donald Trump, capitalizing on this discontent, has labeled U.S. aid to Ukraine as illegal in his rallies, promising to halt it. Many voters view him as a decisive leader who could bring resolution to the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and bring down inflation.
To a question on who is more capable to keep the U.S. safe from foreign threats 53% voters opted for Trump.
Elon Musk defining election narrative
In the last 6 months, Elon Musk has become one of the biggest winning factor for Donald Trump. World’s richest man has not only invested over 119 million io his campaign group, America PAC, but has also devoted considerable energy to campaigning in high stake Pennsylvania, where he went to college. X has arguably been converted into a Trump propaganda machine with pro Trump tweets and narrative going viral everyday. Several banned right wing voices have been usurped by Elon Musk who spread false narrative against Kamala Harris under the garb of free speech.
Team of Influential Allies
MAGA supporters have been branding Kamala Harris as a weak contender, criticizing her inability to handle tough TV interviews and governance questions. In contrast, Trump’s team is touted as a powerhouse, suggesting that a vote for Trump is a vote for figures like Elon Musk, JD Vance, Robert Kennedy Jr., and Vivek Ramaswamy. This narrative positions Trump’s potential cabinet as a lineup of influential and assertive personalities, reinforcing his campaign’s image of decisive leadership and robust policymaking.
Trump’s legal freeze advantage
Former President Donald Trump faces four criminal cases, but Election Day could be pivotal for his legal fate. A win could delay or even nullify his legal battles for at least four years. If he loses, sentencing and trials could swiftly follow.
Without the presidential candidacy, Trump’s legal troubles would be more pressing. He’s set for sentencing on felony counts related to hush money, with looming trials on his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election. A dismissed case on mishandling classified documents could be reinstated upon appeal.
