Drop in turnout may not mean a reversal of BJP’s fortunes | Latest News India

Voter turnout had increased in all past three Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, the drop in turnout seen in early phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has become one of the most-watched trends of this contest. One reason for this interest is that a growth in turnout at the parliamentary constituency (PC)-level was associated with the Bharatiya Janata Party’s good performance in both 2014 and 2019, according to research by political scientist Neelanjan Sircar. Does a drop in turnout in 2024 mean reverses for the BJP? Analysis of the turnout data released by the Election Commission of India (ECI) so far shows that the link may not be so straightforward. Here are four charts that argue why this is the case.

How much has turnout decreased overall?

Voting took place in 485 of 486 PCs scheduled for polls in the first six phases ( the BJP candidate was elected unopposed in Surat). In these 485 PCs, the turnout in the 2019 Lok Sabha election was 67.6%. In 2024, this number slipped to 66%. While this overall change of 1.6 percentage points is modest, the change was almost double this figure in the first two phases. The turnout decline since 2019 was 3.9 percentage points in first phase and 3.5 percentage points in the second phase. In the other four phases up to the sixth phase, the drop in turnout was 0-1.4 percentage points. To be sure, the turnout in the seventh phase – as of 11 PM on June 1 and likely to be updated – was around five percentage points less than in 2019.

To be sure, the numbers exclude the Outer Manipur PC and the 19 PCs from Assam and Jammu & Kashmir. This is because the Outer Manipur PC voted in two different phases; and the boundaries of Assam and Jammu & Kashmir PCs have been redrawn in a delimitation exercise since 2019.

How did turnout change at the PC-level?

The numbers shown above make it clear that a big drop in turnout was largely limited to the first two phases of elections. However, individual PCs could still report a drop in turnout in subsequent phases. What is the total number of PCs where turnout has decreased? Among the 466 PCs of the first six phases where turnout can be compared with 2019 (Outer Manipur is comparable at the PC-level, but not the Assam and Jammu & Kashmir PCs), turnout has decreased in 317, or 68%. To be sure, 54 PCs have recorded a drop in turnout of under 1 percentage point and another 49 PCs have recorded a drop of only 1-2 percentage points. However, this still leaves 214 PCs (46% of 466 PCs) where the turnout has decreased by 2 percentage points or more. Among these 214 PCs, the turnout decreased by more than 5 percentage points in 79. Does this signal anything about the election results? This is what the next two sections will attempt to answer.

Which states saw the most drop in PC-level turnout?

The answer to this question shows why at least making a correlation between a drop in turnout and BJP losses is not safe at this stage. Of the 214 PCs where turnout has decreased by 2 percentage points or more, 47 are in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, two states where the BJP’s impact is likely to be the least. To be sure, it is entirely possible that different states have different reasons for a drop in turnout.

Among the big states – those with at least 10 PCs – a turnout decline of more than 2 percentage points was seen in a high proportion of PCs in Haryana, Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu; 69-100% of PCs in these states recorded a drop in turnout of more than two percentage points. On the other hand, no PC in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and Karnataka registered a decline in turnout of more than 2 percentage points.

Is there a relation between the incumbent and the PCs that have recorded a drop in turnout?

Not much. Of the 466 comparable PCs of the first six phases, BJP and its allies won 66.1% in 2019, Congress and allies 17.6%, and other parties 16.3%. These seat shares don’t change much (at least for BJP and allies) if we restrict ourselves to the 317 PCs where turnout has decreased. In these 317 PCs, the 2019 winners were the BJP and its allies in 65.9%, Congress and allies in 20.2%, and other parties in 13.9%. Among the 214 PCs where turnout has decreased by more than two percentage points, the 2019 winners were BJP and allies in 67.8%, Congress and allies in 23.8%, and other parties in 8.4%. These numbers are largely a reflection of the fact that Kerala and Tamil Nadu — states that Congress and allies had swept in 2019 — have a disproportionate share of PCs where turnout has decreased.