Ukrainian forces used American-made HIMARS rockets to reduce to rubble a large building housing Russian troops in the city of Makiivka in Donetsk oblast in the Donbas on December 31, killing at least 63 Russian soldiers.
Russia’s defence ministry made an unusual admission of casualties, the Ukrainians claimed they had killed “about 400” soldiers, and Western media reported there was significant anger among Russian nationalists at the seeming incompetence that had led to the losses.
A significant boost for Ukraine
Even going by the number of dead confirmed by Russia, this would be among the deadliest attacks by the Ukrainians since the beginning of the war more than 10 months ago.
The Ukrainian military said in its daily Facebook update that “up to 10 units of enemy military equipment of various types were destroyed and damaged…in the settlement of Makiivka,…the losses of personnel of the occupiers are being specified”.
Daniil Bezsonov, a senior Russian official in Donetsk, whose annexation was announced by the Kremlin in September last year, wrote on Telegram that a vocational school being used as barracks was dealt “a massive blow”, and that “there were dead and wounded; the exact number is still unknown”.
The New York Times quoted a former Russian paramilitary commander in Ukraine, Igor Girkin, who uses the nom de guerre Igor Strelkov, as saying “many hundreds” were dead and injured, and many “remained under the rubble”.
Reports in The NYT and The Guardian said satellite images purportedly of the aftermath of the Ukrainian strike circulating online showed a building that had been almost completely destroyed.
The Russian defence ministry said four HIMARS rockets had hit the complex. The HIMARS weapon system, which fires satellite-guided rockets from mobile launchers, is part of a growing arsenal of sophisticated Western weapons that have helped Ukraine change the course of the conflict, The NYT said.
The US began supplying the HIMARS system to Kyiv in June 2022, and it has since been used to hit targets far behind the war’s front lines, The NYT report said, giving the examples of the bridge linking Kherson to Russian-held territory, which contributed to the Russian decision to abandon the city, and the destruction of a hotel in Kadiivka, Luhansk, in December, in which members of the Wagner Group were reportedly killed.
Maps prepared by The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) show Ukrainian forces have taken back significant chunks of territory that had been overrun by the Russians earlier in the war, including areas around Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the southeast of the country.
NEW: A devastating Ukrainian #HIMARS strike on a Russian base in #Makiivka, #Donetsk Oblast, on December 31 has generated significant criticism of Russian military leadership in the Russian information space. Latest on #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats: https://t.co/ou4m9DyAAq pic.twitter.com/8Q7wXA44cp
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) January 3, 2023
Anger among Russian war hawks
An ISW assessment of the war published on January 2 noted that “Russia’s air and missile campaign against Ukraine is likely not generating the Kremlin’s desired information effects among Russia’s nationalists”. The assessment flagged a Russian military blogger’s criticism of a December 31 Russian strike on a Ukrainian base as having been carried out at an “inopportune” time “since Ukrainian elements were unlikely to be at the base on New Year’s Eve”.
The Guardian quoted Archangel Spetznaz Z, another Russian military blogger with more than 700,000 followers on Telegram, as describing the Makiivka attack as “horrible”. He wrote on Telegram: “Who came up with the idea to place personnel in large numbers in one building, where even a fool understands that even if they hit with artillery, there will be many wounded or dead?”
Commanders “couldn’t care less” about ammunition stored in disarray on the battlefield, he said, according to The Guardian. “Each mistake has a name.”
Andrey Medvedev, whom The Guardian described as an ultra-conservative journalist and deputy chairman of Moscow’s city parliament, said housing personnel in buildings “directly aids the enemy”, and called for “the toughest conclusions” to be drawn from the disaster.
Bezsonov, the Russian official quoted above, said “those guilty of the decision to use the facility” should be punished, and Vladlen Tatarsky, a military blogger described Moscow’s top officers as “untrained idiots”, The Guardian report said.
The New York Times quoted the pro-war lawmaker Sergei Mironov as demanding the prosecution of officials responsible for the disaster, “whether they wear epaulets or not”.
“Obviously neither intelligence nor counterintelligence or air defense worked properly,” he said, according to The NYT report.
Girkin alias Strelkov quoted above said, “Our generals are untrainable in principle,” according to The NYT.
Setback increases pressure on Putin
Major military failures “will continue to complicate [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s efforts to appease the Russian pro-war community and retain the dominant narrative in the domestic information space,” the ISW assessment noted.
The President has ordered the military and the Investigative Committee to investigate the Makiivka strike by January 6, the assessment said, quoting sources. “Putin’s inability to address the criticism and fix the flaws in Russia’s military campaign may undermine his credibility as a hands-on war leader,” it said.
The ISW assessment said the response of its Russian sources to Putin’s “staged New Year’s address” was “lukewarm”, and that “several Russian milbloggers amplified social media criticisms that Putin used background actors rather than standing with real soldiers during his address”. Girkin (alias Strelkov) drew an unfavourable comparison of Putin with Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the assessment noted.
As the war meanders towards completing a full year, and the Western alliance, despite the hardships faced by their peoples, continues to stand behind Ukraine, it is likely that Putin will find his options narrowing rapidly, and setbacks such as the one in Makiivka will fuel resentment against conscription and likely undermine his domestic support.
