The current spell of fairly heavy rain that has been lashing parts of Kerala is likely to continue for the next few days, aided by a cyclonic circulation over south Sri Lanka and a north-south trough that runs from Rayalaseema to the Comorin area. In fact, the features contributing to active monsoon conditions in Kerala are in a dormant mode, like the offshore trough that normally runs from the south Gujarat coast to the Kerala coast when the monsoon is in a vigorous mode.
The seasonal monsoon trough, which triggers rains in the southern peninsula when the trough shifts south of its normal position, now runs in its normal position. However, the formation of cyclonic circulation over Sri Lanka seems to have fuelled the rains across the State which is likely to continue at least for the next few days as the system may intensify into a low pressure area and become stronger in the coming days.
The north-west trough that now runs from Rayalaseema to the Comorin area will extend from the system while passing through Kerala. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an orange alert warning of very heavy rainfall for two districts, Thrissur and Ernakulam, on Wednesday and a yellow alert for the remaining districts except for Kasaragod and Kannur, forecasting isolated heavy rains.
Though the revival of active monsoon features is unlikely for the next week, the likely formation of monsoon low is expected to benefit Kerala, bridging the rain deficit, especially in central and southern Kerala. The southwest monsoon is 11 percent deficient as of August 11.
