Can Mamata’s Aggressive Stitch In Time Over Muslim OBC Quota Save ‘The Nine’ Going To Polls In Last Phase?

West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee faces a critical test in the last phase of the Lok Sabha elections on June 1. This phase, involving nine key constituencies in South Bengal — her traditional stronghold — could determine the fate of the TMC and Banerjee at the national level.

Of the nine, two — Joynagar and Mathurapur — are reserved for the Scheduled Caste, while at least four seats have a Muslim population share of over 30%. Two seats — Diamond Harbour and Basirhat — have a Muslim vote share of over 50% and the community plays a dominant role there.

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The seventh phase comes amid three significant Calcutta High Court rulings, including the cancellation of the Muslim OBC quota, which may have a “mixed” bearing on her support base.

Political analysts and social scientists, who work with data and field verification, claim that the TMC can sweep an election in the state if the party can manage around 15% of Hindu votes, as it is likely to have around 30% of Muslim votes consolidated in its favour. But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) here has managed to compartmentalise the Hindu votes based on region and other parameters, including refugee Hindus, caste, OBC and tribal factors.

In 2019, the TMC had won all the nine seats.

MAMATA’S ASSERTION

While Hindu OBC votes may tilt towards the BJP, with the party’s campaign focusing on Banerjee’s alleged “appeasement policies”, starting from granting reservation to the Muslim community, financial assistance to the clerics and so on, the Muslims may go towards Banerjee for her aggressive assertion post the Calcutta High Court judgment.

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“Her assertion may work as an assurance for Muslims living in rural areas. The reservation in government jobs and education institutions may have only mattered to the middle class and lower middle class Muslims who have aspirations. I feel there is resentment among educated Muslims after the order came. The government did not do enough to plug the lacunae in the system and did not fight the case as seriously as it should have. But that percentage of Muslims is a small part of the urban Muslim population,” said Prof Adul Matin, who teaches political science in Jadavpur University. Matin is also a social scientist who works among Muslims and backward classes.

“The massive impact will be among Muslims living in the rural hinterland of Bengal. They may not have anything to do with reservation. However, Banerjee’s roar from the election campaign stage saying that she does not accept the order and will move to the higher court sounded like another political shelter to them,” he added.

WHAT THE HC SAID

According to the Calcutta High Court judgment on the Muslim OBC quota, by a Gazette Notification dated March 25, 2013, the state published the West Bengal Backward Classes (other than scheduled caste and scheduled tribe) Act of 2012 (hereinafter referred to as the ‘Act of 2012’) that was passed by the State Legislature. Schedule-I of the said Act of 2012 carved out two categories of OBC A (More Backward) and OBC B (Backward). The 77 OBC Classes, which were previously classified and sub-classified by executive notifications/ memoranda were incorporated in the schedule.

Cancelling the quota, the Calcutta High Court in its observation said, “If history and realities of life provide any guide, it would be axiomatic to say that human ingenuity has no limits in finding out the ways of avoiding and circumventing the provisions of law much more in cases where confidence of the people at large rests upon the government.”

“The society at large has a stake in proper application of the yardsticks pertaining to reservation. The allegations in the instant case are neither skirmishes nor bald, but speak of overt acts indicating non-compliance of the statutory provisions and the law as laid down by the Hon’ble Supreme Court. Strict adherence to the rule of law is to be ensured and the same cannot be allowed to be flouted in the hands of the executives who dressed in little brief authority and in exercise of its discretion cripples the constitutional guarantee of fairness and reasonableness,” the court added.

BJP’s APPEASEMENT CLAIMS

Even as Muslims are likely to consolidate in favour of Banerjee solidly after the ruling, there is a possibility that a good chunk of the Hindu OBC voters may align towards the BJP. The BJP has long been campaigning against such a quota in Bengal and also built their campaign around the alleged appeasement by Banerjee. They said that Banerjee’s government was trying to “curtail” the rights of Hindu OBCs by including 77 Muslims groups and sub-groups in the OBC quota.

Hours after the order, PM Narendra Modi, while addressing election rallies, said that the reservation should never be based on religious lines. In a recent interview to ANI, he elaborated stating that reservation had become a talking point and a crucial issue in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He also spoke about safeguarding the constitutional principles and the rights of marginalised communities.

“I want to alert the SC, ST, Other Backward Class people because by keeping them in darkness they (opposition) are looting them. Election is such a time, that I should make the countrymen aware of the biggest crisis that is coming. Therefore, I have been explaining this to the people. The basic spirit of the Constitution of India is being violated and that too for the sake of vote bank politics… Those who call themselves well-wishers of the Dalits, tribals, are in reality their staunch enemies…There is an imprint of the Muslim League in their manifesto…Do you want to destroy the coming generations also for the sake of vote bank?… I will fight for the rights of my Dalit, tribal, OBC brothers and sisters. And that’s why I’m fighting the battle,” he said.

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PM Modi’s repeated thrust on the Muslim OBC quota and related politics indicate that the ruling may have emanated from West Bengal, but it is going to see political ramifications nationally.

In addition to the OBC Muslim quota political debate, Banerjee’s sudden outburst against some of the senior functionaries of social institutions like Ramakrishna Mission, Bharat Sevashram and ISKCON may also impact the elections and may also sound like “validation” of the BJP’s allegations. All these social institutions in Bengal have a huge following irrespective of caste lines. “We are confused. We are still trying to analyse why she attacked such institutions with a massive Hindu following,” added Matin.

Prof Biswanath Chakraborty, a senior political analyst, said that the BJP’s electoral dividend in this phase is likely to be “very limited”. “Apart from North Kolkata seat, where the Trinamool is witnessing factional feud, the BJP is not likely to earn any electoral dividend in this phase. The quota judgment will not help the party much as the electoral strategy is flawed,” he added.