Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves to a crowd after casting his vote in Ahmedabad. (Express Photo by Nirmal Harindran)
The BJP is headed for a massive win in Gujarat, where it has been in power for nearly two-and-a-half decades, and is marginally ahead of the Congress in Himachal Pradesh, according to exit polls broadcast by television networks after the final phase of voting in Gujarat Monday. Counting of votes will take place on December 8.
Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann and AAP MP Harbhajan Singh at an Aam Aadmi Party roadshow in Ahmedabad. (Express photos by Chitral Khambhati)
I travelled to Gujarat last week to report on the assembly election — tomorrow is the second and final phase of voting and the results will be out on December 8. If elections are not just about the immediate outcomes, if they are also about long term political stirrings and shifts on the ground, then this election in Gujarat is primarily about the Aam Aadmi Party.
At the beginning of this year, in the election held in February, the party that was born in Delhi won Punjab. Now as the year ends, whatever the final numbers say, it has announced its presence in Gujarat. In conversations with voters across the three regions I travelled to — South Gujarat, Saurashtra and North Gujarat — the AAP was visible in its all-out electioneering in town and village.
Five years ago, in 2017, the exit polls successfully predicted that the BJP would comfortably hold on to power in Gujarat despite a Congress surge and return to power in Himachal Pradesh.
Among the exit polls for Gujarat, the India Today-Axis My India survey predicted the lowest tally for the BJP at 99-113 and 62-82 constituencies for the Congress while News 24-Today’s Chanakya forecast 124-146 seats for the BJP, up 31 seats compared to its 2012 tally of 115 in the 182-member Assembly. The Congress, it added was likely to bag 47 seats. Times Now predicted 113 seats for the BJP and 66 seats for the Congress. The ABP-CSDS survey said the Congress would win 64 seats while the BJP would return to power with 117 seats. How things panned out: The BJP ended up returning to power with a reduced tally of 99 seats — with the India Today survey figures right on target — despite its vote share increasing from 47.9 per cent in 2012 to 49.1 per cent. The Congress won 77 constituencies, with its vote share increasing from 38.9 per cent in 2012 to 41.4 per cent.
