Beijing is angry and nervous at the same time. It cannot tolerate a direct challenge to the pet policy of president and supreme leader Xi Jinping. The protests are a direct affront to the one-party system of governance and contain the seeds of a pro-democracy movement.
The Medium is the Message
Without clear leadership or organisation, the protest movement has survived a harsh crackdown by the police and has spread to towns and cities since last Friday. There were signs of the movement snapping on Monday morning, but by evening it spurted again in new areas that had remained peaceful earlier. The movement is being fuelled by millions of postings on Sina Weibo, the Chinese version of Twitter, WeChat, which is akin to WhatsApp, and several other social media platforms.
For more than a decade, China’s internet users have perfected the art of beating censors in their own game. The art lies in posting perfectly innocent comments like ‘Long live Chinese people’ to indicate there are serious dangers lurking around. Even demonstrations holding blank A4 papers contain the same symbolism – the same method of sending out messages without using critical words and inviting censoring authorities.
Some observers have suggested that a major fire accident in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang region in western China, acted as a catalyst. Families stuck in a residential building could not be saved from the fire because it was under lockdown. The official count put the number of deaths at 10, but social media reports suggest it was more than 20.
But Urumqi is too far from the consciousness of the people in Shanghai and Beijing, or the students at the Communication University in Nanjing that has been a major protest site. The fact is that a lot of frustration has been bottling up within China at a time when Xi entered his third term as president and became the country’s most powerful leader after Mao Zedong.
The protest movement is spontaneous and expresses pent-up feelings of millions who have been rendered unemployed, and suffered a wide range of atrocities owing to pandemic control measures. The economy has been severely affected by repeated lockdowns of factories, offices and transport systems for nearly two years. Though authorities are bravely sticking to a 5.5% GDP growth projection for 2022, most independent economists have suggested it will be 4% or less.
The ruling party feels that Covid control measures in China have proved themselves to be more effective compared to most other countries. The ‘zero Covid policy’, Xi’s pet strategy, has, according to reference website worldometer, helped keep the number of Covid deaths limited to 5,233 compared to 1.1 million in the US and 530,000 in India.
China’s worst critics find it difficult to question the effectiveness of this policy in containing the pandemic. Beijing has successfully resisted attempts by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to investigate the coronavirus’ origins in Wuhan using its international clout. But this has not protected China from the loss of its image in the world.
The Carrot and the Stick
At stake is the image of the ruling communist party. It cannot allow itself to be seen as weak and buckling down to crowds. Hence the mounting use of force. The intensity of heavy-handedness is likely to increase as the party cannot afford a rebellion. But authorities are desperate to ensure that fence-sitters do not go over and join the protesting bandwagon. Attempts would also be made to assuage the hurt and anger of people by relaxing the implementation of Covid control measures.
One challenge for Xi is to make sure that communist officials in provinces and small towns understand and implement the ’20 adjusted measures’ issued by the central government to reduce lockdowns and mass testing in areas less affected by Covid. This is an uphill task as the pandemic is showing signs of re-emerging with the National Health Commission reporting a spurt in infections.
Some believe the commission’s new numbers may be an exaggeration to justify the Covid control system. True or not, local officials will have to act according to reports from the health commission. Relaxing the control mechanism, though a political requirement to deal with the protests, may be extremely difficult for local officials if infections keep rising.
The coming week will test Xi’s abilities as a leader capable of taking the people along, instead of being seen as a tough dictator eager to crush the people’s concerns at a time when the economy is slipping. Every Chinese leader craves the Confucian image of a ‘benevolent leader’. Xi has survived the massive anti-corruption campaign that led to the detention of nearly 1 million communist officials without a whimper from the public.
But this protest movement appears to be different. It may either fizzle out or gain momentum depending on how Xi deals with the situation. In his third term, Xi would be desperate to make sure this does not turn into a pro-democracy movement.
