As Arsenal wait for the January transfer window to open, how much does the same period 12 months ago weigh on the minds of manager Mikel Arteta, sporting director Edu and the club’s owners?
Arsenal chose not to make a signing then, instead allowing a number of players to leave the club — including star striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. It was a calculated gamble, and one that ultimately backfired, with Arsenal being pipped to Champions League qualification by arch-rivals Tottenham.
This winter window looms with Arsenal currently top of the Premier League table, albeit with worrying injury news concerning Gabriel Jesus. It is a pivotal moment of the season — will Arsenal seize it?
Last three January window spends
2022: £0
2021: £0
2020: £0
Arsenal are a team who have historically done quite a lot of business in January. The likes of Jose Antonio Reyes, Andrey Arshavin and Theo Walcott all joined during this mid-season window. Of late, however, there have been very few permanent signings made during it — a reflection of the difficulty in landing top targets at this time of year.
They have, though, made substantial use of the loan market. In January 2020, Arsenal signed Cedric and Pablo Mari on short-term deals that would later become permanent ones. A year later, they prised Martin Odegaard away from Real Madrid before, that summer, agreeing a deal to sign him permanently.
How much money is likely to be available this month?
There were two deals Arsenal pursued intensively over the summer that they did not complete. The first was the signing of Leeds United winger Raphinha, who ultimately joined Barcelona. They had indicated a willingness to spend in the region of £40million-£50million on the Brazil international.
Then, right at the end of the window, they moved for another Brazilian: Douglas Luiz. As the minutes ticked down, Arsenal were seemingly prepared to pay close to £30million for the midfielder — but to no avail. Aston Villa were intransigent, and Luiz has since signed a long-term deal with them.
Douglas Luiz was a target over the summer (Photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)
Given Arsenal had the capability to complete at least one of these deals a matter of months ago, it’s fair to surmise there will be a substantial budget available to Arteta and Edu in January.
The club’s strong league position also gives them an excellent chance of more European football next season — potentially a return to the Champions League after six years away. Owners Kroenke Sports & Entertainment may be prepared to sanction spending with confidence that there is a summer windfall to come.
Who makes the key decisions over signings?
Arsenal’s recruitment process is designed to be led by Edu. It’s the Brazilian who has to synthesise the needs of the squad, the desire of manager Arteta, and the work done by the club’s team of analysts and scouts to identify the right players to pursue.
When Arsenal dispensed with their existing scouting team in the summer of 2020, the intention was to introduce a more streamlined, efficient process. That painful decision does appear to have paid dividends as Arsenal’s recent transfer business has largely been successful.
As much as Edu deserves credit for overhauling recruitment, many close to the club feel it is ultimately Arteta’s word that carries most weight. In the discussions and debates over potential signings, the Spaniard tends to get his way. It’s not always the case, but if Arteta wants a player, that often proves to be the deciding factor.
Which position is the priority?
After the injury to Jesus at the World Cup, many fans would say centre-forward. Arsenal do not necessarily see it the same way: they don’t want to allow a relatively short-term problem to shape their squad building plans. So a pure No 9 is not high on their agenda.
Arsenal have wanted an additional attacking player for some time, but one who operates on the flanks: a player who could provide cover and competition for the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. Arsenal allowed Nicolas Pepe to join French club Nice in the summer, but the closest they came to replacing him was the addition of the promising but raw Marquinhos.
A new central midfield player is also on the agenda for 2023 — but with Thomas Partey and Mohamed Elneny currently fit, there is less urgency in that area. It’s something more likely to be attended to in the summer.
Who are plausible targets?
The Athletic have already reported on Arsenal’s primary target: Mykhailo Mudryk. Arteta and Edu are pursuing the 21-year-old winger, who has been watched closely by the club for some time. Arsenal considered a summer move for the Ukraine international, before pivoting to trying to sign Luiz when Partey and Elneny were ruled out by injuries.
Mudryk is excited by the prospect of joining Arsenal. The problem is that his club, Ukraine’s Shakhtar Donetsk, are publicly suggesting they expect to receive as €100million (£88m) for his services. Arsenal do not intend to go that high, so will be working hurriedly to try to find a compromise.
High price tags may be a hazard of this mid-season market.
Look around Europe at plausible alternatives to Mudryk, and none seem particularly cheap. Take Mohammed Kudus, the Ajax winger had a strong World Cup with Ghana and is coveted by clubs across Europe.
When Manchester United bought Brazil winger Antony from the same Dutch club for €100million in the summer, they set a problematic precedent.
Who could be heading out?
Arsenal have a relatively slimline squad, so it would be surprising if they allowed many players to leave during this window.
There may be one or two departures from the fringes of things. Cedric has found first-team opportunities difficult to come by since Ben White moved to right-back. With Japan international Takehiro Tomiyasu also competing for that full-back berth, the 31-year-old might well leave in the forthcoming window.
At the moment, the front-runners for his signature are Fulham. Staying in London, and indeed the Premier League having originally come to English football with Southampton in 2015, would appeal to the Portugal international. As yet, however, there has not been a formal offer for his services.
Third-choice goalkeeper Karl Hein had expressed a desire to go out on loan to gain more first-team experience. Arsenal’s current position is that he is required to stay as cover — the decision to play the Estonian in the Carabao Cup tie against Brighton in November was made in part to demonstrate he remains a valued part of the squad.
Game time is likely to be just as hard to come by for him in the second half of the season, so it will be worth watching to see if Arsenal’s stance softens towards the end of the window.
Which World Cup star would be perfect for your club…
Aside from Kudus, Arsenal could do worse than looking at 24-year-old France international Randal Kolo Muani.
The Eintracht Frankfurt forward, who was a late call-up to the squad as injuries forced 2022 Ballon d’Or winner Karim Benzema and Christopher Nkunku out, made a considerable impact during the tournament. He scored in the semi-final against Morocco, and might have been the match-winning hero in the final were it not for a superb extra-time save by Argentina’s Arsenal old boy Emiliano Martinez.
When The Athletic looked for strikers who profiled similarly to Jesus, Kolo Muani was flagged as a potential alternative.
Intriguingly, he is comfortable out wide as well as through the middle: another multi-functional forward.
Kolo Muani only joined Frankfurt on a free transfer from Nantes this past summer, but the Germans would consider offers that enabled them to turn a swift, and substantial, profit on him.
(Photo: Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)
