The incident encapsulates the origin, current status and dangers of the wider border row with China that started in 2020. And it is a clear indication that the new normal will include sporadic clashes, build-up of tension and creation of new border flashpoints by an assertive China.
The clash, which erupted after close to 350 Chinese soldiers approached Indian positions with an intention to dismantle forward observation posts, had been brewing for months. Over the past year, China has been steadily increasing its presence across Indian positions in Tawang. This has included development of new, hardened roads, defensive positions and pushing in additional soldiers.
The Tangwu New Village, portrayed as a civilian settlement but in reality is a semi-military garrison, was the staging point for the clash at Yangste. The Chinese aim, it seems, was to take down Indian positions that can keep a check on Tangwu and call in for reinforcements in the face of provocative action. Smaller clashes have occurred at the location in the past but in December, China sent in an extraordinarily heavy troops, aiming to change the status quo before heavy snowfall makes access almost impossible.
The action was thwarted with the presence of a larger body of Indian troops, with local commanders managing to predict the Chinese assault on the ridge, assisted by enhanced domain awareness thanks to the generous deployment of reconnaissance and surveillance assets on the LAC.
Width of the Problem
The Yangste flashpoint follows a model that has emerged at several locations on the disputed border with China. With enhanced connectivity to forward locations and with new roads and bridges, Chinese troops have been attempting to assert control over disputed areas which used to be barely patrolled in the past. This has prompted an Indian reaction of increased troop deployment, creation of new defences and infrastructure and significant investments in equipment to detect and deter the opposing force.
Yangste is just one of the eight border flashpoints in Arunachal that have been kept active by the Chinese side. But the problem persists beyond the borders of the northeastern state. Similar flashpoints, where active Chinese provocations continue, are present in Sikkim and the Doklam plateau, Barahoti in Uttarakhand and multiple points of Eastern Ladakh.
The entire Indian Army deployment from Karakoram Pass in Ladakh to the eastern tip at Kibithu, that consists of lakhs of troops, is on high alert to monitor and track Chinese moves close to the border. This is in addition to the strong Indian deployment at Siachen glacier, Kargil and along the entire Line of Control (LoC) against Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir.
While border talks led to pulling back of troops at the Hot Springs (Ladakh) flashpoint this year, provocative actions persist at other locations, indicating that enhanced forward deployment of troops at high altitude areas will continue even through the winter months for the foreseeable future.
Provocative Action Persists
Before the large-scale clash at Yangste, smaller altercations and face-off between opposing patrols have taken place at regular intervals in Arunachal Pradesh. Only a few of these needed intervention from senior officials, including an incident where military stores were recovered after PLA troops retreated following a minor clash.
At the sensitive Doklam plateau, which saw a major military flare up in 2017 when India stopped Chinese troops from constructing a road that threatened army defences on the Jhamperi ridge, Chinese presence has remained strong. The PLA has also initiated additional infrastructure development in disputed areas that Bhutan has a strong claim over, setting a direct path of confrontation with India.
On the Ladakh front, the Chinese side carried out a series of provocation with air assets in July, necessitating a strong Indian retort that included night sorties, deployment of frontline fighter jets and enhanced surveillance.
The border provocations are in line with increasingly aggressive military posturing by China in the South China Sea, repeated air violations near disputed islands with Japan and the series of military exercises that encircled Taiwan in August after a visit by US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.
Uneasy Calm, Sporadic Clashes Likely to Continue
As troops stay in for another winter on the Himalayan frontier, it is becoming certain that an uneasy calm, disrupted by sporadic clashes and creation of fresh border flashpoints will be the new normal. However, the danger of a Yangste-like clash morphing into a larger battle on the border cannot be ruled out, given the strong build-up that both sides have invested in.
Given that India has drawn up its red lines following the deadly Galwan clash in 2020 — PLA troops deemed to be using force to alter the status quo can be subject to firepower if the need arises — the initiative lies with China to either back down, continue minor salami slicing tactics to keep the border active or be prepared for a larger battle of attrition.
