Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday he was “100 percent” confident that his forces would destroy the Pentagon’s most advanced air defence system that US President Joe Biden has promised to send to Ukraine.
“Of course we will destroy it, 100 percent!” Putin said, referring to the Patriot missile battery in extracts of an interview aired on Russian television.
Just before his Zelensky’s arrival in US recently, the country had announced a new $1.8 billion military aid package, including for the first time Patriot surface-to-air missiles.
Patriot missile systems have long been a sought-after shield against incoming missiles for the United States and its allies in contested areas around the world. They protect Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific from potential attacks from Iran, Somalia, and North Korea.
However, experts warn that the system’s efficacy is limited, and it may not be a game changer in the war.
WHAT EXACTLY IS A PATRIOT Missile System?
The Patriot is a surface-to-air guided missile system that was first deployed in the 1980s and is capable of destroying aircraft, cruise missiles, and shorter-range ballistic missiles, the Associated Press explained in a report.
Each Patriot battery is made up of a truck-mounted launching system with eight launchers each capable of holding up to four missile interceptors, a ground radar, a control station, and a generator. According to the Army, there are currently 16 Patriot battalions. And as per a 2018 International Institute for Strategic Studies report, those battalions operate 50 batteries with over 1,200 missile interceptors.
The U.S. batteries are regularly deployed around the world. In addition, the Netherlands, Germany, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, Spain, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Romania, Sweden, Poland, and Bahrain operate or have purchased Patriots.
Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Associated Press that the Patriot system “is one of the most widely operated, reliable, and proven air missile defence systems out there,” and the theatre ballistic missile defence capability could help defend Ukraine against Iranian-supplied ballistic missiles.
What Does the Patriot Cost?
The Patriot system and missiles have been constantly modified over the years. According to CSIS’s July missile defence report, the current interceptor missile for the Patriot system costs about $4 million per round, and the launchers cost about $10 million each. At that price, using the Patriot to shoot down the far smaller and significantly cheaper Iranian drones that Russia has been buying and using in Ukraine is neither cost effective nor optimal.
“Firing a million-dollar missile at a $50,000 drone is a losing proposition,” Mark Cancian, senior adviser at CSIS and a retired Marine Corps reserves colonel told the Associated Press.
CONCERNS ABOUT DEPLOYMENT
A Patriot battery can require up to 90 troops to operate and maintain, and the US has been hesitant to provide the complex system for months because sending forces into Ukraine to operate it is unacceptable to the Biden administration.
However, there were concerns that deploying the system would provoke Russia, or that a missile fired could end up hitting inside Russia, escalating the conflict. Russia’s Foreign Ministry warned on Thursday that a US plan to deliver sophisticated air defence missiles to Ukraine would be “another provocative move by the US,” prompting a response from Moscow.
According to officials, the urgent pleadings of Ukrainian leaders, as well as the devastating destruction of the country’s civilian infrastructure, including the loss of electricity and heat as winter continues, eventually overcame U.S. reservations about supplying the Patriots.
Training will be a significant challenge. US forces will be required to train Ukrainian forces on how to operate and maintain the system. Soldiers assigned to Patriot battalions receive extensive training to locate a target, lock on with radar, and fire.
The United States has trained Ukrainian troops on other complex weapons systems, such as the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems). They’ve been able to cut training time in many cases, getting Ukrainian troops to the front lines in weeks. Officials have refused to say how long the Patriots’ training will last or where it will take place.
What Can the Patriot Do For Ukraine?
Ukraine faces a variety of Russian threats, and the Patriot is effective against some but ineffective against others, the report states.
A former senior military official familiar with the Patriot system told the Associated Press that it will be effective against short-range ballistic missiles and will send a strong message of US support, but one battery will not change the course of the war.
The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the Ukraine deal has not yet been made public, noted that while one Patriot battery has a long firing range, it can only cover a small area. Patriots, for example, can effectively protect a small military base but cannot fully protect a large city like Kyiv. They could only cover a small portion of a city.
Patriots are frequently deployed in battalions of four batteries. Ukraine, on the other hand, will only receive one battery, according to officials.
The Patriot has a more powerful radar that is better at discriminating targets than the Ukrainians’ Soviet-era S-300 system, but it has limitations, according to both Karako and Cancian.
Nonetheless, the Patriot’s ability to target some ballistic missiles and aircraft could protect Kyiv if Russian President Vladimir Putin followed through on his persistent threat to deploy a tactical nuclear device. But it would depend on how the weapon was delivered, according to Karako. If it was a gravity bomb dropped by a warplane, the system could target the plane; if it was a cruise or short-to-medium-range ballistic missile, the system could intercept the missile, according to Karako.
Raytheon, which manufactures the Patriot, claims to have been involved in 150 ballistic missile intercepts since 2015. The Patriot’s success rate, on the other hand, has been repeatedly questioned. According to a 1992 Government Accountability Office report, there was no evidence to support reports that the system had a 70% success rate against Scud missiles during the Gulf War. When videos of systems failing surfaced in 2018, Saudi Arabia’s success in using Patriot missiles against Houthi rebels in Yemen was called into question.
Beyond the Patriot’s capabilities, the Patriot’s deployment is a significant show of support for Ukraine.
With inputs from the Associated Press
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