The 2022 World Cup final comes to a climactic end when Argentina take on defending champions France on Sunday. With an average of 2.63 goals being scored from 62 games of this competition, we can expect the two highest-scoring teams in the World Cup to find the net, especially with Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe on the pitch. Yet, the question of which team will lift the cup will come down to the tactical options Lionel Scaloni and Didier Deschamps employ.
How Argentina can stop France’s threat
Deschamps’ pragmatic attitude with France is overemphasised – they have the highest non-penalty xG of any nation in this World Cup (11.9), with Mbappe and Olivier Giroud accounting for much of it. On paper, Scaloni’s job is simple – neutralising Mbappe and Giroud.
Stopping Mbappe is counter-intuitive — Morocco opted for a direct approach with Achraf Hakimi and Sofyan Amrabat staying tight and employing an ‘agricultural’ approach. It worked until Mbappe displayed his arsenal of close control (and luck) late on. Argentina’s disciplinary record is an issue — their 14 yellows are the most in the World Cup — and attempting to foil Mbappe with a direct approach could be foolhardy, especially with a four-man defence.
Instead, Scaloni would be better off suffocating Antoine Griezmann, who’s created the most chances (21) and has the highest xA (3.5) of any player.
That’s why Angel di Maria might not start, with the more defensive Alexis MacAllister and Rodrigo de Paul operating down the wings in the same 4-4-2 employed against Croatia. Griezmann’s tendency to start from a defensive midfield position and end up in the wide areas has outfoxed many defences attempting to mark him one-on-one. The positional discipline of Argentina’s four-man midfield should be enough to stifle Griezmann, which might neuter France’s threat in transition, and consequently, Mbappe and Giroud.
One of Gonzalo Montiel or Nahuel Molina will nonetheless have to face Mbappe, but they should be provided support from De Paul and Cristian Romero in that channel. Nicolas Otamendi and Romero ought to have enough between them to get tight to Giroud and prevent his clever flicks in aid of Mbappe. Marcos Acuna is a better defensive presence than Nicolas Tagliafico, and should get the nod given Ousmane Dembele’s presence in opposition.
How Argentina can maximise their threat
Argentina have the highest xG of any team in this World Cup (12.2), yet much of it is owed to the four penalties (3.16) they have earned. France have also conceded the most penalties in this World Cup (3) and with the tricky feet of Lionel Messi and Julian Alvarez in the box, it’s a recipe for Argentina being best placed employing a direct approach.
With Messi doing his best to embarrass the World Cup’s best defenders, it’s tempting to rely on the oft-used tactic of just giving him the ball… and praying. Arguably the greatest athlete of all time tends to answer said prayers, but Argentina obviously need to do more. Enzo Fernandez could prove pivotal were he relieved of defensive responsibilities, especially as a provider to Alvarez. France are likely to employ their mid-to-low block once more, and with space at a premium, Fernandez might be best used in a purely creative role.
Yet, it all boils down to Messi in the right channel going forward. 53% of Morocco’s attacks against France came down that side, with Theo Hernandez left alone given Mbappe’s duty to stay high up the pitch. Deschamps may tweak things to have his defensive midfield pivot shift over to provide cover, but that would only leave space for MacAllister or Fernandez to exploit on the opposite side. It may once again come down to Messi threading an eye-of-the-needle pass like he did against the Netherlands. Alvarez’s hard graft up front also ought to create space for others, as France are unlikely to afford him space like Croatia did.
How France can stop Argentina’s threat
Lionel Messi is generally unstoppable. A Messi motivated by the prize of the only trophy to elude him, playing his last ever World Cup game… France have their work cut out and may also be missing Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate with the virus. For a manager who rarely likes to tinker with his lineup, Deschamps might very well have to start the World Cup final with the untested combination of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano.
It’s a testament to the riches within France’s squad that any backline they put out seems well-equipped to deal with most attacks. Messi’s presence, however, might force a defensive tweak, which might require Antoine Griezmann to channel his inner N’Golo Kante and remain as a defensive presence. Deschamps has used Griezmann in this manner a fair bit, which allows his two-man defensive pivot to shift over and provide cover to Hernandez down the left. Griezmann has floated forward usually, but might be reined in to cover off Messi’s threat.
Another option of dealing with Messi’s threat is in shackling De Paul, who’s exchanged 115 passes with his teammate, much more than next-highest Fernandez with 68.
France scored early against England and Morocco, which perhaps explained their low block and possession stats (43% and 39%). Yet, this is Deschamps’ usual fare, and it is unlikely to change against Argentina. Alvarez’s pressing might be unsuited against a low block and all of France’s defensive options have the qualities to nullify him.
How France can maximise their threat
Mbappe and Giroud’s qualities are well known and Scaloni will definitely have a plan to deal with the pair, as well as Griezmann. Where France could spring a surprise is in how they utilise Ousmane Dembele down the right wing. Dembele has been reined in a fair bit to provide support to the fullbacks down the right, but could be unleashed against an Argentinian left-side that’s not the most secure. His ability to drift centrally and play incisive passes with either foot could prove crucial in transitions, while also offering the option of pace down the right as well.
Yet, with Mbappe keen on proving he’s the heir apparent to Messi’s crown, it might be prudent to stick to what’s worked for France. Sit deep and transition fast on the counter, with Griezmann and Giroud providing for Mbappe to run in behind. If Giroud can occupy the centre-backs and allow Mbappe to isolate himself against Molina or Montiel, it’s a nightmare scenario for Argentinian fans.
Argentina have been second-best in aerial duels in every knockout game this World Cup, which ought to have Giroud salivating. France’s all-time top scorer could prove to be a handful for Otamendi and Romero in the air, which could prove useful from set-pieces, or even on the counter.
The X factors – substitutions, extra time and penalties
Angel di Maria could prove crucial for Argentina if they need a goal late on. His inventiveness going forward can cause the French backline their share of problems, although it leaves Argentina a bit short defensively. As for France, their options to change things going forward are limited in the absence of Karim Benzema, but Marcus Thuram has proved himself a tricky forward for defences that are tiring.
Were this game to go to extra-time, France might very well find themselves at a disadvantage given the illness within their squad. Emi Martinez has already won a cup for Argentina with his prowess in a penalty shootout, and would start as a favourite against Hugo Lloris, despite the French captain already saving a penalty in this tournament. In all likelihood, France will have to finish the job within ninety minutes if they are to retain their crown.
