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    With 1st Phase Tomorrow, What’s the ‘Mood of Gujarat’ According to Opinion Polls? Explained


    Campaigning for the first phase of the Gujarat Assembly elections to be held on December 1 ended at 5 pm on Tuesday. As many as 788 candidates are in the fray for 89 seats across 19 districts of south Gujarat and Kutch-Saurashtra regions where voting will be held on Thursday.

    The state, which has traditionally witnessed a bipolar contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, has a third player this time in the form of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which has fielded candidates on 181 out of total 182 seats in the Assembly.

    Among notable candidates in the first phase is Aam Aadmi Party’s chief ministerial face Isudan Gadhvi, who is contesting from Khambhalia in Devbhumi Dwarka district. Former Gujarat minister Parshottam Solanki, six-time MLA Kunwarji Bavaliya, Morbi ‘hero’ Kantilal Amrutiya, cricketer Ravindra Jadeja’s wife Rivaba and Gujarat AAP president Gopal Italia are also in the fray.

    Rivaba Jadeja will face Congress candidate Bipendrasinh Jadeja and former BJP leader Karsan Karmur, who is now contesting from the Aam Aadmi Party. (Twitter)

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP’s campaign for the first phase while Union Home Minister Amit Shah, party president J P Nadda, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and a host of other BJP leaders also addressed several rallies.

    With AAP positioning itself as the main contender against the BJP, its national convener and Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal led a massive campaign covering the entire state within five months since July.

    Candidates In the Fray

    In the first phase, 89 candidates each of the BJP and Congress, and 88 of AAP are in the fray. AAP candidate for Surat East withdrew his nomination on the last day.

    The BJP has fielded nine, Congress six and AAP five women candidates in the first phase. Of total 788 candidates in the fray in the first phase, 718 are male and only 70 female.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP’s campaign for the first phase while Union Home Minister Amit Shah, party president J P Nadda, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and a host of other BJP leaders also addressed several rallies (PTI Photo)

    Mayavati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has fielded 57 candidates in the first phase, Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) has fielded 14, Samajwadi Party 12, Communist Party of India (Marxist) four, Communist Party of India two candidates.

    There are 339 independents.

    What Do Opinion Polls Say?

    India TV-Matterize Poll: According to the opinion poll, BJP is set to get absolute majority in the assembly elections in Gujarat. After it, the Congress is expected to remain at the second position.

    Gujarat will hold elections for a total of 182 assembly seats. The opinion poll states that BJP may win 109 to 124 of the 182 seats in the Gujarat Assembly. Meanwhile, the Congress Party is expected to win 51 to 66 of the 182 assembly seats. After the BJP, the Congress can maintain its second-place position. For the first time, the Aam Aadmi Party can win 0-7 seats in all assembly seats, the poll predicts. The Congress defeated the BJP in the Gujarat assembly elections in 2017.

    ABP-C Voter Poll: C-Voter conducted a final opinion poll for ABP news for all 182 seats in Gujarat. A total of 19,271 people weighed in on this. This poll was conducted from November 22 to November 28. The margin of error in this opinion poll is plus or minus 3% to 5%, a report by ABP News stated.

    The opinion poll has given majority to BJP, also placing Congress in the second position. A look at the breakdown:

    Total 182 Seats:

    BJP – 134-142

    Congress – 28-36

    AAP – 7-15

    Others – 0-2

    North Gujarat

    Total Seats – 32

    BJP – 20-24

    Congress– 8-12

    AAP – 0-1

    Others – 0-1

    South Gujarat

    Total Seats – 35

    BJP – 27-31

    Congress – 2-6

    AAP – 1-3

    Others – 0-1

    Saurashtra

    Total Seats – 54

    BJP – 38-42

    Congress – 4-8

    AAP – 7-9

    Others – 0-1

    Madhya Gujarat

    Total Seats – 61

    BJP – 45-49

    Congress – 10-14

    AAP – 0-2

    Others – 0-2

    Read all the Latest Explainers here





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