A new poll from AtlasIntel claimed former president Donald Trump is leading vice president Kamala Harris in each of the seven swing states though the margin is narrow. Trump is favored to win in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The new poll comes amid Ann Selzer poll sent shockwaves that Kamala Harris is ahead in Iowa which is a reliably conservative turf that Donald Trump won both in 2016 and 2020.
The AtlasIntel survey said Trump is holding the widest margin in Arizona — with a 52.3 per cent to Harris 45.8 per cent.
In Nevada, Trump has a 51.2 per cent to 46 per cent edge over Harris.
In North Carolina, Trump holds a 50.5 per cent to 47.1 per cent lead.
In Georgia, Trump is leading 50.1 per cent to Harris’ 47.6 per cent.
In Michigan, it’s 49.7 per cent for Trump and 48.2 per cent for Harris.
In Pennsylvania, the projection is 49.6 per cent for Trump and 47.8 per cent for Harris.
Wisconsin is the closest — 49.7 per cent for Trump and 48.6 per cent for Harris.
Aftermath of the shock poll in Iowa
A Des Moines Register Iowa poll claimed Kamala Harris is three points up in Iowa mostly because of the women voters. “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer told the newspaper. “She (Harris) has clearly leaped into a leading position.” Selzer and the Register surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Harris’ lead in the poll is the result of a massive gender gap. She leads by 20 points among women, 56% to 36%. Trump has a lead among men, but it’s relatively smaller, 52% to 38%. It’s a pattern that’s repeated itself to varying extents nationwide, but notably, a six-week abortion ban went into effect in Iowa this summer.
Daily Beast report said after the shock poll, betting markets tilted towards Kamala Harris. Kalshi’s betting market on Saturday gave Trump a 55 per cent chance of winning on Saturday but on Sunday morning that fell to 50 per cent.
On Polymark, Trump was at 63 per cent on Saturday but on Sunday morning, he tumbled down to 56 per cent. PredictIt gave Harris breathing room after the Iowa poll.
