A new survey has suggested that 61% of Indian Americans will vote for Kamala Harris while 31% will support Donald Trump in the ongoing US presidential election that ends on November 5. According to the Indian-American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) 2024 conducted by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in partnership with YouGov, and published on Monday, there is also worrying news for Democrats.
There is a dip in the desi community’s support for the Democratic presidential candidate compared to 2020, when 68% backed Joe Biden, and an increase in the support for Trump from 22% four years ago to 31% now. There is a dip in the number of Indian-Americans who identify as Democrats, from 56% to 47%, and those who lean Democrat, from 66% to 57%.
And in line with what appears to be a broader shift across ethnic groups, a major shift if it gets reflected in results, 48% of Indian-American men below the age of 40 are with Trump, compared to 44% for Harris. This surge in support of young Indian men for a Republican candidate has happened for the first time in electoral history and goes against anecdotal assumptions that pinned older men to be more conservative in their electoral choices. Trump’s support is also higher among those of Indian origin born in America, compared to foreign-born Indian immigrants who are naturalised citizens.
But in a sign of the complexity of the election and attitudes and the need to avoid easy conclusions, abortion, a key Democratic campaign theme, ranks right behind economic concerns as the second most important issue for Indian-American voters. The survey also shows women voters of all age groups backing Harris by a substantial margin compared to their support for Trump, even as men appear split on age with older voters backing Harris. Desi voters have also turned more Left compared to four years ago.
The salience of desi vote
The survey was conducted by three political scientists — Devesh Kapur of Johns Hopkins University, Milan Vaishnav of Carnegie Endowment, and Sumitra Badrinathan of American University. It has been published just a week before the end of an unprecedented election that is witnessing a former president, who is also a convicted felon and rejected the results of the last elections battle it out with a sitting vice president, who is the first Black and Indian woman to be a nominee of a major party and entered the race only 100 days ago.
A nationally representative sample of 714 Indian Americans responded to survey questions from mid-September to mid-October. The same scholars had conducted a similar survey in 2020 that was the first of its kind in the range of political and social attitudes it examined among Indian-Americans.
Nationally, there are now 5.2 million people of Indian descent in the US, of which the survey estimates 2.6 million to be US citizens. Indian-Americans are now the second largest immigrant group in the US, second only to Mexican-Americans. Their population has grown by 50% since 2010, the survey says.
Indian Americans have emerged as a key voting bloc. Among them, 96% are billed to be likely voters. Their median income is $153,000 annually, double the national average, the survey points out. And their political influence in terms of representation, as symbolised most starkly in Harris’s nomination, financial heft, business leadership, and presence in academia and medicine, gives them high visibility in public life. And they are present in swing states where elections are close and the margin of victory is low.
Lean Harris, with caveats
The survey offers clear signs that while there is a growing conservative political inclination, the liberal trend remains the more dominant within the community, with Indian-Americans defying easy generalisations.
The fact that 61% of Indian-Americans support Harris, according to the poll, places the community only second to African-Americans, among whom 77% are for Harris, in their support for the Democratic candidate. The desi ratio of support is higher than the poll estimate of 58% Hispanic support and 41% White support for Harris.
There is also an increase in the proportion of those who identify themselves on the Left, from 47% to 55%, and a reduction in those who identify themself as conservative, from 23% to 17%. Kapur, Vaishnav, and Badrinathan point to key messages from the findings.
In terms of gender, there is a clear gap even if a majority of both men and women are with Democrats. Among women, 67% back Harris while 22% back Trump. Among men, 53% back Harris and 39% back Trump. In terms of age, Harris’s support is highest among older people, with 70% above 50 backing her while 55-56% below 50 are with her.
Fusing gender and age, viewed from another prism, among those over 40, 70% of women and 60% of men were for Harris. Below the age of 40, 60% of women said they were for Harris. Men under 40 are the only age group where Trump enjoys higher support, with, as noted earlier, 48% backing Trump compared to 44% for Harris.
Unlike other groups, college education is not a marker of difference in terms of political preferences among Indians. But an interesting distinction is on the basis of immigration status and birth. Among naturalised citizens, Harris is more popular by a wide margin, with 67% backing her and only 24% backing Trump. Among those born in the US, the gap is narrower, with 53% backing Harris and 39% with Trump. The survey authors point out that this suggests that ethnic identity may be more important for immigrants, while gender is a bigger marker of difference among those born in America.
In terms of religious breakdown, while a majority among all groups support Harris, Trump enjoys more support among Hindus than non-Hindus. As many as 58% of the Hindus polled were for Harris while 35% were for Trump. In terms of non-Hindus of Indian descent, 62% were for Harris and 27% for Trump.
Issues and policies
The poll shows that for Indian-Americans, like the rest of American voters, economic concerns remain the topmost in determining political choices. For 17% of the respondents, inflation and prices were the topmost issues while 13% listed jobs and the economy as their key issues.
Abortion was key for 13% of the voters too, while for ten percent of the voters, immigration was the top issue. Health care, climate, civil liberties, crime, taxes, and spending were next on the list of issues. It was only four percent of the respondents that US-India relations were a top issue. There is a partisan divide, the survey shows, with Republicans prioritising the economy and Democrats prioritising abortion.
One other way that the survey uses to judge attitudes is to ask respondents which charities they would contribute to. Charities working on climate, expanding abortion rights, and helping Palestinians rank high in the list for desis, once again show a strong liberal orientation.
The survey interrogates what is it about the two parties that voters don’t like. With Republicans, Indian-American voters are uncomfortable with the party’s treatment of minorities, its position on abortion, its networks with evangelists, and economic policies. And with Democrats, Indian-American voters expressed their unease with its stance on illegal immigration, economic policies, identity politics, and extreme Left-wing influence.
“The headline finding of the 2024 IAAS is that Indian Americans remain deeply connected to the Democratic Party but less so since 2020. Six in ten Indian American citizens plan to vote in favor of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris… However, the Republican Party has made modest inroads, evidenced by the uptick in support for Donald Trump,” the authors conclude.
