The year 2023 is likely to worst year in history for the H-1B cap lottery. Experts are of the opinion that the registrations this year can go up to 500,000 for about 85,000 new H-1B visa petition approvals. Robert Webber, US immigration lawyer, in a recent post elaborates on a few reasons behind the same. Take a look here.
Electronic Registration: The system, which was first launched in 2020, is a great concept in theory as it can make the entire process very easy for employers. But, in the reality, it is quite impractical.
The new system allows a lot of speculative filing, that could be restricted by the older one due to useful barrier to entry. Now, without a barrier to entry, the number of filings has skyrocketed.
In 2021, the number of registrations went from 274k up to 308k, and in 2022, the same stood at 483k.
US job market remains robust: On Friday, the US Department of Labour indicated the U.S. economy created 223,000 jobs. That is, there are 1.7 jobs for every job seeker.
Now, the United States is a strong economy and one of the ‘easiest ways’ to get into the job market is to have a consulting company sponsor you for an H-1B. So the demand is likely to spike further.
Tech company layoffs: Amid high-profile tech lay-offs, even if an F-1 student is already working at Amazon or Twitter or Meta, the chances of getting chosen in the lottery are bleak.
“In addition to having the ‘regular’ risk of not being chosen in the lottery due to excess demand, you have the additional risk that even if chosen, your position might be eliminated,” he said
Previous year’s lottery losers: There were a record number of lottery registrations from March 2022 meaning there were a record number of lottery LOSERS in March 2022. And many of them will try again this year.
Slow PERM labor certification process: “For some non-India/China graduates, their employers are willing to sponsor them for PERM and then try to get them through PERM and into the I-140/I-485 process and get them an EADAP work/travel document without dealing with the H-1B cap.”
Even though the strategy is smart, the process is extremely slow. So in case, the F1 to green card process is not happening, these candidates will also pressure for H-1B sponsorship
Then, for those going from F-1 to EB-2 NIW to green card, or being sponsored for a green card through PERM, even if they have enough time to get to the I-140 stage, the emerging issue of Visa Bulletin cut-off dates for ROW (Rest of World) mean that there are people who would like to do an end-run on the H-1B cap lottery are not able to do so, just adding yet another group of people seeking the finite capped visas, the expert opined.
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