The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices are likely to open marginally lower on January 1 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a negative start for the broader index with a loss of 72 points.
On December 29, the BSE Sensex was down 170 points at 72,240, while the Nifty 50 declined 47 points to 21,731 and formed a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily scale, indicating indecision among bulls and bears about future market trend.
“Normally, such formations after a reasonable rise send out trend reversal alerts. But, having formed this pattern beside the bull candle of Thursday, one may expect range-bound action or consolidation movement to continue in the market,” Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, said.
A long bull candle was formed on the weekly chart, that has surpassed the high-wave type candle pattern of the previous week. This is a positive indication, he feels.
The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty is likely to see immediate resistance at 21,762, followed by 21,784 and 21,820 levels, while on the lower side, it can take support at 21,691, followed by 21,668 and 21,633 levels.
Stay tuned to Moneycontrol to find out what happens in the currency and equity markets today. We have collated a list of important headlines across news platforms, which could impact Indian as well as international markets.
GIFT Nifty
The GIFT Nifty indicates a marginally negative start for the broader index with a loss of 72 points. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 21,776 points after making a high of 21,812 points.
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US Markets
Stocks fell slightly on Friday, but the S&P 500 closed out 2023 with a surprising gain of 24 percent as inflation slowed, the economy remained strong and the Federal Reserve signalled an end to its rate-hiking campaign.
The S&P 500 rose for nine straight weeks to end the year, its best winning streak since 2004. Big Tech stocks lifted the Nasdaq Composite to its best year since 2020 on AI enthusiasm.
The broad index fell 0.28 percent to settle at 4,769.83, with a 24.2 percent gain for the year. The S&P 500 ends 2023 just short of a new all-time high. At one point on Friday, it climbed within 9 points, or less than 0.2 petrcent, from its record close of 4,796.56 attained in January 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 20.56 points, or 0.05 pertcent, to close at 37,689.54 on Friday. It finished the year with a 13.7 percent gain and notched a record in 2023. The Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.56 percent to 15,011.35 for the session, but rose 43.4 percent for its best year since 2020.
“The momentum continues to remain favourable heading into the year end,” said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. “It’s been quite a phenomenal run.”
European Markets
European stocks ended Friday’s session in the green, marking a positive end to a solid year. The regional Stoxx 600 index provisionally finished 2023 up 12.64 percent on the year. It follows a fall of 12.9 percent in 2022. On Friday, the Stoxx ended the day provisionally 0.1 percent higher, with almost all sectors up amid thin trade. London markets closed early, with the FTSE 100 in the green as the FTSE 250 dipped.
Spanish pharmaceutical group Grifols was the biggest stock mover, climbing around 8.4 percent after announcing it will sell a 20 percent stake in Shanghai RAAS, a blood products firm, to China’s Haier for approximately $1.8 billion.
Germany’s DAX has risen nearly 20 percent over 2023 despite the country’s gloomy economic picture, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 have gained 16.4 percent and 3.64 percent. In the US, stocks were little changed Friday as the S&P 500 index chased a new record high to cap off the rally of the last two months.
Asian Markets
Asia-Pacific markets fell on the last trading day of 2023, with China stocks being the sole exception as the country’s tech companies continued their advance. Chinese consumer electronics company Xiaomi on Thursday detailed plans to enter China’s oversaturated electric-vehicle market. Hong Kong shares of the company fell more than 4 percent by afternoon trading.
The company seeks to compete with auto giants Tesla and Porsche with a car model Xiaomi says it spent more than 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) to develop. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dipped 0.20 percent, while China’s CSI 300 index closed 0.49 percent higher at 3,431.11.
China and Hong Kong indexes rallied more than 2 percent each in the previous session but were still set to be the biggest percentage losers for the year among major Asia-Pacific markets. China’s CSI 300 index is down 11.8% for the year, while the Hang Seng has plunged 14 percent in 2023.
Japan’s Nikkei 225, which ended down 0.22 percent at 33,464.17, wrapped up the year with gains of over 28 percent, making it Asia’s top-performing market. The broader Topix closed 0.19 percent higher at 2,366.39, having surged over 25 percent in 2023. South Korea markets were shut on Friday, with the Kospi up 18.7 percent for the year and the Kosdaq clocking 27.5 percent in gains. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index closed 0.31 percent lower at 7,590.80, cooling off from two straight sessions of gains, but was still up 7.84 percent for the year.
Former NITI VC Arvind Panagariya is chairman of 16th Finance Commission
Arvind Panagariya, the former vice-chairman of Centre’s topmost think-tank NITI Aayog and a professor of Columbia University, has been appointed as the chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, as per a government order issued on December 31.
The order notified the formation of the 16th Finance Commission and listed Panagariya as its chief, but a notification for the appointment of other panel members would be issued separately.
“The Chairman and other members of the Commission shall hold office from the date on which they respectively assume office up to the date of submission of Report or 31st day of October, 2025, whichever is earlier,” the order stated.
This means that the 16th Finance Commission will make its report available by October 31, 2025 covering a period of five years starting April 1, 2026. The notification further said that Ritvik Ranjanam Pandey, Joint Secretary in the Department of Revenue, will be the Secretary to the commission.
SEBI penalises realty fund managers, trustees for failing to wind up, not returning investors monies
Bringing cheer this year-end to scores of investors, the capital markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), has imposed a penalty of Rs 1 crore on Unitech Advisors (India) Pvt Ltd and two of its directors, Ajay and Sanjay Chandra, for failing to wind up three real estate funds years ago, despite several extensions. The amount is to paid jointly by them.
SEBI has found a number of violations by the fund house, which is now known as Auram Asset Management Ltd. Apart from not winding up the schemes on time, it observed that Unitech Advisors had invested investors’ monies in its group companies, made bad investment decisions, and still not returned the money of a majority of its investors.
SEBI has also imposed a penalty of Rs 10 lakh on- and to be paid jointly by- Sanjay Chandra, Hitendra Malhotra, another director of the company, and Deepak Bajaj, a director at Unitech Realty Investors (India) Pvt Ltd and a nominee of Unitech Advisors on the investment committee of the fund house. That’s Rs 3.33 lakh to be paid by each of them, for failure to furnish information, return, and so on.
A further penalty of Rs 10 lakh, also to be paid jointly, has been imposed on Hitendra Malhotra and Deepak Bajaj; that’s Rs 5 lakh each. This penalty is for failure to redress investors‘ grievances. SEBI has also slapped a penalty of Rs 10 lakh each on the fund house’s three trustees – Vijay Tulshyan, Mahesh Kumar Sharma and Rakesh Dhingra.
Mcap of 8 of top-10 most valued firms jump Rs 1.29 lakh cr; HDFC Bank biggest gainer
The combined market valuation of eight of the top-10 most valued firms jumped Rs 1,29,899.22 crore in a holiday-shortened last week, where equity benchmark indices recorded a sharp rally.
Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 1,133.3 points or 1.59 per cent. The index reached its all-time high of 72,484.34 on December 28. Equity markets were closed on Monday for Christmas.
While Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, ITC, State Bank of India and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) were the gainers, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys were the laggards. HDFC Bank, LIC, Bharti Airtel and Hindustan Unilever were the biggest winners from the top-10 pack.
Demand uptick, easing inflation in developed markets to provide silver lining for exports in 2024
Easing inflation in developed countries, softening interest rates, a gradual pick up in global demand and other factors will provide a silver lining for the country’s exports and the overall outbound shipments are expected to be more than $900 billion in 2024.
International trade experts have expressed hope that the services sector would perform better than merchandise and the country’s overall outbound shipments may touch over $900 billion in 2024 against an estimated $764 billion in 2023.
A stable rupee against the US dollar, focus on new markets like Latin America and Africa, new items like mobiles and fresh fruits, focus on promoting e-commerce exports, free trade agreements with the UAE and Australia would also help the country register healthy growth in outbound shipments next year.
Despite various challenges, including geopolitical tensions and China’s subdued post-pandemic recovery, impacting exports this year, India’s goods and services exporters have managed to tap opportunities in developed as well developing economies.
The current year started with negative growth in exports, with the decline touching about 19 per cent in June but the decline narrowed down to 2.83 per cent in November 2023. An official said goods exports rose 6.21 per cent in October” and going forward, this trend will continue in 2024 also and along with goods, services exports too are growing”.
FPIs inject Rs 1.7 lakh crore into Indian equities in 2023
In a remarkable comeback, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 1.7 lakh crore into the Indian equity markets in 2023, propelled by confidence in the country’s robust economic fundamentals amid a challenging global landscape.
The year 2023 has witnessed massive investment by FPIs, thanks to the sharp uptick in inflows of Rs 66,134 crore in December. Going forward, FPI flows are expected to be robust. However, their allocation is likely to be selective, said Kislay Upadhyay – smallcase Manager and founder of Fidel Folio.
Anticipating a continued decrease in the US interest rates throughout 2024, it is likely that FPIs are likely to increase their purchases, especially in the early months of the New Year in the run-up to the general elections, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
In 2023, FPIs made a net investment of Rs 1.71 lakh crore in equities and Rs 68,663 crore in the debt markets. Together, they infused Rs 2.4 lakh crore into the capital market, as per the data available with the depositories.
Oil Prices
US crude oil closed out the year more than 10 percent lower as bearish sentiment has taken over due to worries that the market is oversupplied from record production outside OPEC.
The West Texas Intermediate contract for February shed 12 cents, or 0.17 percent, to settle at $71.65 a barrel on Friday. The Brent contract for March lost 11 cents, or 0.14 percent, to settle at $77.04. US crude and the global benchmark booked the first annual decline since 2020 despite ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East due to the devastating war in Gaza. WTI is down 10.73 percent for the year, and Brent has lost 10.32 percent.
Oil prices rose nearly 3 percent on Tuesday on worries that militant attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would disrupt global trade and crude supplies. While fears of escalation in the Middle East have triggered brief spikes in crude prices, traders are primarily focused on the supply and demand balance.
Dollar Index
The Dollar index traded 0.06 percent lower in futures at 101.32, whereas the value of one dollar hovered near Rs 83.09.
Gold Prices
Gold prices held steady on Friday as they notched their best year since 2020 at levels comfortably above $2,000 an ounce, buoyed by hopes the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as March. Spot gold was at $2,062.59 per ounce, unchanged from the previous session. US gold futures settled 0.6 percent lower at $2,071.80, closing the year 13.45 percent higher to cinch its first positive year in three.
“The ship is moving towards calmer waters, so to speak — a lower rate environment, which means a lower dollar, and so gold should do better,” Marex analyst Edward Meir said. Gold investors anticipate record-high prices next year, when the fundamentals of a dovish pivot in U.S. interest rates, continued geopolitical risk, and central bank buying are expected to support the market.
“To see higher levels, we need to see stronger demand from investors, such as a pickup in ETF inflows. For that weaker U.S. economic data and lower inflation is needed, so that the Fed sounds more dovish,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.
Stock under F&O ban on NSE
The NSE has added Hindustan Copper to its F&O ban list for January 1. Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.
FIIs and DIIs
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth Rs 1,459.12 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased Rs 554.39 crore worth of stocks on December 29, provisional data from the NSE showed.
With inputs from Reuters and other agencies.
